Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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It's a migration toward value as a reflection that investors believe the growth rates of earnings are slowing. It will continue until investors are convinced that the Fed will take its foot off the break, or reduce interest rates.
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The recent rise in interest rates has created some uncertainty about the bull market's longevity.
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The worry is that the lid, or the cap, on interest rates is now off.
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The rise in oil prices and concern over the Fed's interest rate policy are very troubling to the market. That's going to present a challenge to this rally.
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Something has got to give, ... Crude prices will have to come down or there will have to be some assurance on interest rates before the market will be energized.
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The stock market has been closely connected to the bond market in the last two weeks, and today's stabilizing interest rates is probably the No. 1 reason behind the gains.
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Obviously the situation turns very heavily on interest rates,
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It's very clear that higher energy prices are now being passed along to consumers, and it's not difficult to do that when the economy is as strong as it is. This will put additional pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue to raise short-term interest rates.
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This market is trying to rally. If the Fed reduces interest rates by 50 basis points, it will touch off a rally, but if we get a rally it will be guarded.
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Clearly the Federal Reserve is getting what it wanted with six interest rate increases.
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I don't think it changes anything for Federal Reserve policy. Various early warning signs of inflation are still telling us they have to raise interest rates by 50 basis points and they are likely to do so when they meet next week.
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On the surface level it's a real simple story. Interest rates are rising and the outlook for the economy and earnings is darkening every step of the way.
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It is a down week after some predictable profit taking following a strong January. But the excuse for that profit taking was the Fed. We walked away from last Tuesday's meeting in which they raised interest rates, knowing that they will likely raise rates again at their March meeting.
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Long-term interest rates are low and I'd prefer to buy when rates are higher and more attractive. As a federal government issuer or taxpayer, I'd be excited but, as an investor, I just don't see the appeal.