Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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As the bull market progressed, analysts became more optimistic about next year's earnings. Now, it's the extent to which companies will hit their numbers for 2004 that will make next week so important for the market.
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One of the most important signs of a bull market is when the bull market manages very, very bad news like we've had today. So in that sense, you've got a very encouraging performance today.
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The recent rise in interest rates has created some uncertainty about the bull market's longevity.
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When you say the stock market is overvalued, you imply that the stock market is going down. But there is a touch of lunacy in every bull market -- stocks can become even more overvalued. A rational investment policy in an irrational world is suicide.
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There's an old adage on Wall Street: bull markets climb a wall of worry. Needless to say, there are a lot of worries out there.
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If you get that configuration, particularly liquidity conditions, usually you can bet pretty heavily that this is going to be a bull market.
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The Goldman Sachs news seemed to re-energize the bull market.
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The conditions for the restarting of the bull market, or the start of a new bull market, which is how you should look at it, those conditions do not exist. Not yet, and that's why the markets went down yesterday despite what the Fed said,
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When all of the markets around the globe simultaneously go down, that's the message. That's what you have to worry about.
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It was almost a sure bet that the Fed was going to raise rates in June. Now it's almost a sure bet, say 50-50 at least, that they won't move in June.
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These stocks are so extraordinarily overvalued, and a lot of debt was built up to buy them. Everybody became a believer and had to be on board.
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The stock market rally today is because we drove the market down to levels that were on the cheap side and when you get news like the leading indicators saying things are going to be good for the economy and profits, that attracts buyers.
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The stock market has been closely connected to the bond market in the last two weeks, and today's stabilizing interest rates is probably the No. 1 reason behind the gains.
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The stock market has become modestly overvalued and investors are using a variety excuses to take money off the table. I wouldn't be surprised if the current, corrective phase continues and the market declines another 5 percent.