Diane Swonk
Diane Swonk
effect running slowing winter
We weren't running our heaters very much this winter and this would have the effect of slowing down production,
cold consumers early relatively sales snap spending strong suggesting vehicle winter
It's all vehicle sales and gas. Chain-store sales were relatively strong during the month, suggesting consumers diverted their vehicle spending to other sectors. We also had a cold snap which prompted early spending on winter wear.
bond market problems
The bond market is just overwhelmed by problems abroad,
industrial numbers people production retail sales
The retail sales and industrial production numbers could be better than people expect.
change expectation future shape sure
These testimonies are to shape people's expectation of future moves. If you're not sure where you are going then why change it?
katrina
Once they got the uncertainty of Katrina out of the way they just got back to their boilerplate statement,
cash debt free paid
Once they get that debt paid off, it's just free cash flow.
advantage consumers days fewer floors helping hiring holiday large less people retailers shopping six taking
Not only are retailers doing more with less, like every other large corporation, and taking advantage of six fewer days in the shopping season, but they are actually hiring less this holiday shopping season, so there's fewer people on the floors actually helping consumers out.
falling fed light reason sit soft
The Fed will sit on its hands. There's really no reason to do otherwise. The economy's falling into place as the Fed thought -- it's in a soft spot, with some light at the end of the tunnel.
bad economic fed financial july months wants whether
The Fed wants to see whether this July data, this bad economic data, was an aberration, and two months will make it clearer. If they see more instability in financial markets, they will take it lower.
catching earnings fed market positive third until willing
The Fed is willing to overshoot the mark. I want to underscore that we're catching up. We're getting the market back in line, but we're not going to see positive earnings from that until we get into the third quarter,
dealing decisions deficits fed impact permanent trying
The Fed doesn't want to be dealing with the old economy, with deficits returning. They're trying to have some impact on decisions made now without getting us into permanent problems.
business consumer die face slack time
The consumer is not about to die on us, but let's face it, it's time for them to give a little slack to the business sector.
bias fed high move rising risk sooner view
I view the risk as very high that the Fed shifts its bias to tighten (interest rates) sooner than we had forecast. The risk is rising that they will move sooner.