Diane Swonk
Diane Swonk
anyone consumer darn hard losing sleep wrong
It's hard to kill this darn consumer, isn't it? Anyone who is losing sleep over the consumer is losing sleep over the wrong thing.
bias fed high move rising risk sooner view
I view the risk as very high that the Fed shifts its bias to tighten (interest rates) sooner than we had forecast. The risk is rising that they will move sooner.
balanced chance decision include interest move pat recession risks standing talk terms
It will be very interesting to see Fed's decision today, which may include them standing pat in terms of no move on interest rates, and there is chance here they will now talk about risks being balanced between recession and recovery,
fed walking
It's about the Fed being more communicative with the markets, ... won't just be walking into Greenspan's shoes.
cold consumers early relatively sales snap spending strong suggesting vehicle winter
It's all vehicle sales and gas. Chain-store sales were relatively strong during the month, suggesting consumers diverted their vehicle spending to other sectors. We also had a cold snap which prompted early spending on winter wear.
adding certainty chaotic
It's all part of adding certainty in a chaotic situation.
frankly hitting percent pressures productive start until wage
We're more productive than we were in the 90s and frankly we didn't start hitting wage pressures in the 90s until about a 4-3/4 percent unemployment rate.
bad indicator people secure whether
very bad indicator on whether or not people feel secure about their jobs.
fed seen softer stay tone
We have seen a softer tone in their write-ups. I think there is a real sense that the Fed is going to stay on the sidelines.
begin boil concerned cycle fed flames pot time turn
We are at a time in the cycle when you don't need to just turn down the flames on the fire, you have a pot that is already boiling. What the Fed is concerned about is that even as you begin to turn down the flames that pot will still boil over.
almost economy fed higher looking rates
It confirms that the Fed is almost done. Those looking for higher rates are not looking at the economy the same way as the Fed.
christmas far market seen tired
I think the market is tired of Christmas. We've already seen the Christmas reports. As far as the market is concerned, that's old news.
enormous front
Up front there are going to be enormous losses.
consumer fast inflation perspective question slowing whether
The question is not whether the consumer is slowing. From the Fed's perspective, it's whether the consumer is slowing down fast enough to keep inflation in check,