Diane Swonk
Diane Swonk
fed sure today
What the Fed told us today is, we don't think we are done yet and we are not sure when we will be done.
bad clearly concerned cycle difference fed gets good growth overly stage
There's a difference between good growth and bad growth at this stage of the cycle and this is clearly not the kind of inflationary growth that the Fed gets overly concerned about,
basis fed given good hesitate insurance policy question reason spend
There's no question that, given the right circumstances, the Fed wouldn't hesitate to spend 175 basis points. But they really have to have a good reason to put an insurance policy out there.
absorb blows economy fed labor market strong
Like what the Fed has suggested, the U.S. economy was more than strong enough to absorb the blows of Katrina. The labor market is still pretty resilient.
clearly fed insurance risk saying willing
I think this is clearly the Fed saying 'we're willing to take out an insurance policy, we're not willing to risk recession',
fed interest involved rate save tools wall
What can the Fed do about WorldCom? This is not an interest rate problem. This is not something they should be involved with, ... I'm sorry, Wall Street, but you can't look to the Fed to save you when they don't have the tools to save you on this one.
argue begin bulk cuts fed feeling pulling rate time
There are many who, on a theoretical basis, would argue that now is the time the Fed should begin pulling back because we'll be feeling the bulk of the rate cuts when we already should have started tightening again.
fed guess move sidelines until
It's my guess the Fed will probably move to the sidelines until at least November,
almost confirm fed minutes
The minutes confirm the Fed is almost done (raising rates).
bias fed high move rising risk sooner view
I view the risk as very high that the Fed shifts its bias to tighten (interest rates) sooner than we had forecast. The risk is rising that they will move sooner.
fed walking
It's about the Fed being more communicative with the markets, ... won't just be walking into Greenspan's shoes.
fed seen softer stay tone
We have seen a softer tone in their write-ups. I think there is a real sense that the Fed is going to stay on the sidelines.
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We are at a time in the cycle when you don't need to just turn down the flames on the fire, you have a pot that is already boiling. What the Fed is concerned about is that even as you begin to turn down the flames that pot will still boil over.
almost economy fed higher looking rates
It confirms that the Fed is almost done. Those looking for higher rates are not looking at the economy the same way as the Fed.