Diane Swonk
Diane Swonk
fed seen softer stay tone
We have seen a softer tone in their write-ups. I think there is a real sense that the Fed is going to stay on the sidelines.
begin boil concerned cycle fed flames pot time turn
We are at a time in the cycle when you don't need to just turn down the flames on the fire, you have a pot that is already boiling. What the Fed is concerned about is that even as you begin to turn down the flames that pot will still boil over.
absorb blows economy fed labor market strong
Like what the Fed has suggested, the U.S. economy was more than strong enough to absorb the blows of Katrina. The labor market is still pretty resilient.
clearly fed insurance risk saying willing
I think this is clearly the Fed saying 'we're willing to take out an insurance policy, we're not willing to risk recession',
fed guess move sidelines until
It's my guess the Fed will probably move to the sidelines until at least November,
bias fed high move rising risk sooner view
I view the risk as very high that the Fed shifts its bias to tighten (interest rates) sooner than we had forecast. The risk is rising that they will move sooner.
falling fed light reason sit soft
The Fed will sit on its hands. There's really no reason to do otherwise. The economy's falling into place as the Fed thought -- it's in a soft spot, with some light at the end of the tunnel.
bad economic fed financial july months wants whether
The Fed wants to see whether this July data, this bad economic data, was an aberration, and two months will make it clearer. If they see more instability in financial markets, they will take it lower.
catching earnings fed market positive third until willing
The Fed is willing to overshoot the mark. I want to underscore that we're catching up. We're getting the market back in line, but we're not going to see positive earnings from that until we get into the third quarter,
dealing decisions deficits fed impact permanent trying
The Fed doesn't want to be dealing with the old economy, with deficits returning. They're trying to have some impact on decisions made now without getting us into permanent problems.
almost confirm fed minutes
The minutes confirm the Fed is almost done (raising rates).
fed interest involved rate save tools wall
What can the Fed do about WorldCom? This is not an interest rate problem. This is not something they should be involved with, ... I'm sorry, Wall Street, but you can't look to the Fed to save you when they don't have the tools to save you on this one.
fed sure today
What the Fed told us today is, we don't think we are done yet and we are not sure when we will be done.
bad clearly concerned cycle difference fed gets good growth overly stage
There's a difference between good growth and bad growth at this stage of the cycle and this is clearly not the kind of inflationary growth that the Fed gets overly concerned about,