Diane Swonk
Diane Swonk
beyond deadline december encourage event flight major moment point radar seems
I think it does encourage flight to quality, temporarily, but actually I think once we get beyond this point, there is a deadline here, ... December 12th is a deadline out there looming not very long away, and I think that once we get beyond that point we really will see this as little more than a blip in the radar screen, as much as it seems like a major event in the moment for the markets. But it's not part of the fundamental economy.
abundant broad brought consumers early extremely finally holiday left less means ordered overly promotions retailers seen shelves
Retailers ordered extremely conservatively for the holiday season. The shelves aren't overly abundant with goods, and controlling inventories has finally made it into broad retailers, not just Wal-Mart. That's important because it means a lot of the early promotions we've seen have brought the consumers in, but has left less on the shelves with less selection.
backs critical environment flooding given hardship illegal labor markets obvious older people silly tight turning work younger
Given the obvious hardship of having illegal aliens flooding in, we also know they are critical to the functioning of the U.S. economy. To be turning our backs on people who want to work is kind of silly in an environment where you've got tight labor markets and we're getting older and need younger people to work.
move
If it was going to be one of them, you would have thought they would just move forward.
economy good
If we are in an economy that is weakening ... that's not good for profits.
certainly door opened rate
He's certainly opened the door to another rate cut.
economic faced kinds rule thrown
He has faced many different kinds of economic environments. He has thrown away any kind of rule of thumb.
bring build consensus evolution inflation policy smooth
He'd like to bring in inflation targeting. (But) he must build consensus to do so and he doesn't have consensus now. I think he's going to make a smooth transition, but it's going to be an evolution in policy change.
people stop sudden
Steakhouses all of a sudden don't look so good, but people don't stop eating,
boost companies competition customer innovate inward mean means order profits turn
That doesn't mean that competition is getting any less. It just means that companies have to turn inward to innovate in order to boost profits and customer satisfaction,
closer employment full percent view
My own view is that full employment is closer to 4 to 4.5 percent -- probably closer to the 4.5 percent range.
falling fed light reason sit soft
The Fed will sit on its hands. There's really no reason to do otherwise. The economy's falling into place as the Fed thought -- it's in a soft spot, with some light at the end of the tunnel.
bad economic fed financial july months wants whether
The Fed wants to see whether this July data, this bad economic data, was an aberration, and two months will make it clearer. If they see more instability in financial markets, they will take it lower.
catching earnings fed market positive third until willing
The Fed is willing to overshoot the mark. I want to underscore that we're catching up. We're getting the market back in line, but we're not going to see positive earnings from that until we get into the third quarter,