Diane Swonk
Diane Swonk
both crippled economy efficient energy expected growth katrina less quarter remarkably resilient response shocks
It was an extraordinary quarter for productivity growth. Katrina was expected to lop off growth and give us a crippled and less efficient quarter. Instead, it showed how remarkably resilient the U.S. economy was both in response to the hurricanes and the energy shocks that accompanied them.
driving early economic growth less means played playing role twice
Even more than the early 1990s, this is a jobless recovery. Productivity growth is playing twice the role it played in the early 1990s in driving economic gains, which means less payrolls growth.
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Retailers ordered extremely conservatively for the holiday season. The shelves aren't overly abundant with goods, and controlling inventories has finally made it into broad retailers, not just Wal-Mart. That's important because it means a lot of the early promotions we've seen have brought the consumers in, but has left less on the shelves with less selection.
advantage consumers days fewer floors helping hiring holiday large less people retailers shopping six taking
Not only are retailers doing more with less, like every other large corporation, and taking advantage of six fewer days in the shopping season, but they are actually hiring less this holiday shopping season, so there's fewer people on the floors actually helping consumers out.
effect running slowing winter
We weren't running our heaters very much this winter and this would have the effect of slowing down production,
fed sure today
What the Fed told us today is, we don't think we are done yet and we are not sure when we will be done.
behind creep inflation pressure pressures
Is the pressure on inflation behind us? I think not. Inflationary pressures are not going to surge overnight, but they'll creep up.
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There's a difference between good growth and bad growth at this stage of the cycle and this is clearly not the kind of inflationary growth that the Fed gets overly concerned about,
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There's no question that, given the right circumstances, the Fed wouldn't hesitate to spend 175 basis points. But they really have to have a good reason to put an insurance policy out there.
hand reactive reason tip
There's no reason to tip your hand because they are in a reactive phase.
gained raise saying
There's nothing to be gained by saying anything right now, ... there's a lot of uncertainty... over how long it will have to raise rates.
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Like what the Fed has suggested, the U.S. economy was more than strong enough to absorb the blows of Katrina. The labor market is still pretty resilient.
brought losses nation recover wealthy york
We are a wealthy nation that rebuilds and fortifies. Ultimately, New York is going to more than recover the losses that this brought on.
clearly fed insurance risk saying willing
I think this is clearly the Fed saying 'we're willing to take out an insurance policy, we're not willing to risk recession',