Diane Swonk
Diane Swonk
absorb blows economy fed labor market strong
Like what the Fed has suggested, the U.S. economy was more than strong enough to absorb the blows of Katrina. The labor market is still pretty resilient.
cards either house sort strong
We've got this sort of house of cards. It is either a strong house of cards or the whole thing could implode on us. It could go either way.
fake late overall performance profit saw strongest
We've got the strongest overall profit performance in 30 years, and these are real profits, not the fake ones we saw in the late 1990s.
cold consumers early relatively sales snap spending strong suggesting vehicle winter
It's all vehicle sales and gas. Chain-store sales were relatively strong during the month, suggesting consumers diverted their vehicle spending to other sectors. We also had a cold snap which prompted early spending on winter wear.
activity bit confidence consumer february grain january numbers partial quite recovery strong
I think you have to take the January numbers with a bit of a grain of salt. Consumer confidence is still quite strong and I think we'll see at least a partial recovery in activity in February and through the spring.
effect running slowing winter
We weren't running our heaters very much this winter and this would have the effect of slowing down production,
fed sure today
What the Fed told us today is, we don't think we are done yet and we are not sure when we will be done.
both crippled economy efficient energy expected growth katrina less quarter remarkably resilient response shocks
It was an extraordinary quarter for productivity growth. Katrina was expected to lop off growth and give us a crippled and less efficient quarter. Instead, it showed how remarkably resilient the U.S. economy was both in response to the hurricanes and the energy shocks that accompanied them.
behind creep inflation pressure pressures
Is the pressure on inflation behind us? I think not. Inflationary pressures are not going to surge overnight, but they'll creep up.
bad clearly concerned cycle difference fed gets good growth overly stage
There's a difference between good growth and bad growth at this stage of the cycle and this is clearly not the kind of inflationary growth that the Fed gets overly concerned about,
driving early economic growth less means played playing role twice
Even more than the early 1990s, this is a jobless recovery. Productivity growth is playing twice the role it played in the early 1990s in driving economic gains, which means less payrolls growth.
basis fed given good hesitate insurance policy question reason spend
There's no question that, given the right circumstances, the Fed wouldn't hesitate to spend 175 basis points. But they really have to have a good reason to put an insurance policy out there.
hand reactive reason tip
There's no reason to tip your hand because they are in a reactive phase.
gained raise saying
There's nothing to be gained by saying anything right now, ... there's a lot of uncertainty... over how long it will have to raise rates.