Diane Swonk
Diane Swonk
meetings move shore
If they move between meetings it's usually a move to shore up confidence.
fed guess move sidelines until
It's my guess the Fed will probably move to the sidelines until at least November,
bias fed high move rising risk sooner view
I view the risk as very high that the Fed shifts its bias to tighten (interest rates) sooner than we had forecast. The risk is rising that they will move sooner.
balanced chance decision include interest move pat recession risks standing talk terms
It will be very interesting to see Fed's decision today, which may include them standing pat in terms of no move on interest rates, and there is chance here they will now talk about risks being balanced between recession and recovery,
move
If it was going to be one of them, you would have thought they would just move forward.
effect running slowing winter
We weren't running our heaters very much this winter and this would have the effect of slowing down production,
fed sure today
What the Fed told us today is, we don't think we are done yet and we are not sure when we will be done.
both crippled economy efficient energy expected growth katrina less quarter remarkably resilient response shocks
It was an extraordinary quarter for productivity growth. Katrina was expected to lop off growth and give us a crippled and less efficient quarter. Instead, it showed how remarkably resilient the U.S. economy was both in response to the hurricanes and the energy shocks that accompanied them.
behind creep inflation pressure pressures
Is the pressure on inflation behind us? I think not. Inflationary pressures are not going to surge overnight, but they'll creep up.
bad clearly concerned cycle difference fed gets good growth overly stage
There's a difference between good growth and bad growth at this stage of the cycle and this is clearly not the kind of inflationary growth that the Fed gets overly concerned about,
driving early economic growth less means played playing role twice
Even more than the early 1990s, this is a jobless recovery. Productivity growth is playing twice the role it played in the early 1990s in driving economic gains, which means less payrolls growth.
basis fed given good hesitate insurance policy question reason spend
There's no question that, given the right circumstances, the Fed wouldn't hesitate to spend 175 basis points. But they really have to have a good reason to put an insurance policy out there.
hand reactive reason tip
There's no reason to tip your hand because they are in a reactive phase.
gained raise saying
There's nothing to be gained by saying anything right now, ... there's a lot of uncertainty... over how long it will have to raise rates.