Chris Rupkey
Chris Rupkey
business capital coming equipment housing purchases slack spending strong timing
Business capital spending is coming on strong and the timing of these equipment purchases could not be better. Business spending will take up the slack as the housing slowdown cools consumers' appetites.
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There was very strong demand -- off the charts -- from the indirect bid -- about 65 percent, bigger than the 55.6 percent at the 10-year note auction in November 2005.
economic economy given growth heart jobs number result risks sector service services solid strong
This is a very solid result for the service sector given all the risks to the economic growth outlook. The services sector is the heart of the economy where most of the new jobs are created, so a strong number bodes well for the outlook.
bit concerned continues economy fed raise slack taking
I'm really more concerned that the economy is taking up slack resources. That could be a little bit worrisome. I think the Fed continues to raise rates.
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Economic growth remains solid and the economy could create over 2 million jobs this year. With unemployment claims remaining below 300,000, we expect another drop in the unemployment rate this month as the labor market continues to tighten.
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Stock losses are giving bonds some juice this morning; we're back to feeling that the economy is weak and that bonds are a buy here.
bit cause consistent early environment increase inflation lay momentum pressures rate resources slack sort spill taken
This is consistent with the idea that slack resources have been taken up in the economy. There is considerable momentum and this is the sort of environment where inflation pressures can spill over and actually cause an increase in the rate of inflation, so it is a bit early for them (the Fed) to lay down their saber.
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Is the soft-patch bond rally over? It's a tough call, but we don't think so, as the reasons for the soft patch, rising gasoline prices at the pump, are still there.
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The Fed is still going to be on guard in terms of monitoring inflationary pressures, but this has to be good news today.
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There is nothing at this point to suggest that Fed officials will pause.
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The red ink was a one-month record in February, and the records are likely to continue to be broken this year. The spending side of the budget ledger remains out of control, despite some effort to constrain these expenditures.
credit due
We were due for a pullback in credit,
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This is not going to be the easiest Treasury refunding sale.
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This budget number is way out there; it was quite a shock.