Chris Rupkey
Chris Rupkey
bit concerned continues economy fed raise slack taking
I'm really more concerned that the economy is taking up slack resources. That could be a little bit worrisome. I think the Fed continues to raise rates.
below claims continues create drop economic economy expect growth jobs labor market million month rate remaining remains solid
Economic growth remains solid and the economy could create over 2 million jobs this year. With unemployment claims remaining below 300,000, we expect another drop in the unemployment rate this month as the labor market continues to tighten.
broken budget constrain continue despite effort ink likely record records red remains side spending
The red ink was a one-month record in February, and the records are likely to continue to be broken this year. The spending side of the budget ledger remains out of control, despite some effort to constrain these expenditures.
cash consumers continued economy expansion hear holiday hope means next optimistic period retailers ringing sales
Consumers are more optimistic during this holiday season, and retailers hope this means that they will hear the ringing of cash registers in what has been a lackluster sales period so far. This augurs well for a continued expansion of the economy next year.
continues economy fast fed gain growth inflation pressures slack slow stop time
Growth isn't fast enough that the Fed has to brake the economy, and at the same time it isn't slow enough that the Fed can stop and watch. Inflation pressures can still gain a foothold as the economy continues to take up slack resources.
below chance claims continues good number quite rate stayed
The jobless claims number went up quite a bit, but the idea here is that because it stayed below 300,000 there's a good chance that the U.S. unemployment rate continues to fall.
bonds buy economy feeling giving juice losses stock weak
Stock losses are giving bonds some juice this morning; we're back to feeling that the economy is weak and that bonds are a buy here.
bit cause consistent early environment increase inflation lay momentum pressures rate resources slack sort spill taken
This is consistent with the idea that slack resources have been taken up in the economy. There is considerable momentum and this is the sort of environment where inflation pressures can spill over and actually cause an increase in the rate of inflation, so it is a bit early for them (the Fed) to lay down their saber.
bond gasoline prices rally reasons rising soft tough
Is the soft-patch bond rally over? It's a tough call, but we don't think so, as the reasons for the soft patch, rising gasoline prices at the pump, are still there.
fed good guard news terms
The Fed is still going to be on guard in terms of monitoring inflationary pressures, but this has to be good news today.
fed officials point suggest
There is nothing at this point to suggest that Fed officials will pause.
credit due
We were due for a pullback in credit,
easiest treasury
This is not going to be the easiest Treasury refunding sale.
budget budgets number quite
This budget number is way out there; it was quite a shock.