Bruce Steinberg
Bruce Steinberg
fourth growth people picking quarter recovery signs since strongly suggest
And the signs since the fourth quarter suggest growth picking up in the first quarter more strongly than most people had anticipated. So I would say the recovery is here.
believe declining economy economy-and-economics good happening hard performing rising sign strong time
The U.S. economy is performing so admirably right now, it is hard to believe how good it is. We have strong growth, declining inflation, strong profits, rising real wages. All of these things are happening at the same time and there is no sign that any of this is about to end.
almost amount boost capital certainly consumer economy economy-and-economics growth half hopefully huge next policy rebound recovery second spending spring stimulus strongly
The U.S. economy is now almost certainly in recession, but a huge amount of policy stimulus should strongly boost growth by next spring or summer. A consumer rebound in the spring and a capital spending recovery by the second half of 2002 will hopefully follow.
bottom continue convincing economic economy economy-and-economics fourth mean monetary policy rebound signs strong
The U.S. economy has yet to show convincing signs of a bottom but that doesn't mean monetary policy isn't working. We continue to look for a strong economic rebound by the fourth quarter.
although bond consensus fearing followed market news pieces rally release relief report stronger
Actually there are two pieces of news. One is that although the market consensus was only 250,000, the bond market was fearing a much, much stronger report --hence the relief rally that followed the release of the numbers.
case demand economy economy-and-economics faster inventory moving percent primarily rocket rose strong though
The economy was moving like a rocket in the first quarter. GDP probably rose at a 4.5 percent rate. It's a little faster than I thought earlier, primarily because even though demand was enormously strong in the first quarter, there was actually a pretty considerable case of inventory building.
pay
Between you and me, you want to be the only one getting the pay raise, and not everyone else.
believe earnings next operating performance sector share snap tech worst year
Tech will have the worst performance of any S&P sector in 2001 with operating earnings per share plunging 73 percent. But next year (2002) we believe tech earnings will snap back strongly.
easily gains gradually job market percent support
As the job market gradually improves, it should easily support consumer-spending gains of at least 3.5 percent this year.
economic stay
We have to stay tuned for more economic data.
anytime expect fed late move occur summer unlikely
We don't expect the Fed to tighten anytime soon. The first tightening move is unlikely to occur before late summer at the very soonest.
cycle easing economy economy-and-economics expect fed hold showing signs
With the economy showing signs of life, the Fed easing cycle is probably at an end. We expect the Fed to hold steady.
believe continue far fed inflation markets talk
We believe the Fed is done. But even if the Fed is done, it will continue to talk tough, stressing inflation risks, in part to keep markets from going to far too soon.
behind data showing worst
Today's unemployment data were as expected, showing that we are still in a recession, but that the worst is behind us.