Brian Bethune
Brian Bethune
looks road tells terms
What this tells us in terms of the fundamentals is the road looks fine.
activity gains job normal overall solid start terms
We'll have very solid overall job gains that will punctuate the start of more normal activity in terms of employment,
continues demand domestic energy external situation sources supply terms
There is an imbalance in terms of the demand and supply of energy which continues to be satisfied, or is increasingly satisfied, by external sources of energy products. Now we have a situation that has been every more complicated because of a domestic supply shock.
additional attractive clearly economic growth side terms
In terms of economic growth, the fundamentals are clearly on the side of the U.S.. We don't think there's going to be a lot of additional momentum, but even if (the dollar) treads water, it's still going to be an attractive investment.
economy economy-and-economics terms
The economy is doing pretty well now in terms of momentum.
europe gaining growth japan provide
Recoveries in Europe and Japan are gaining momentum. This should provide the underpinnings for respectable growth in exports.
business capacity gaining heading justifies level second strength
Manufacturing is gaining strength heading into the second quarter. We have a level of capacity use that justifies more business investment.
gust wind
That was a gust of wind in the spinnaker.
consumers definitely excuse looked needed provided spending strong weather
We're definitely going to see a very strong first quarter. It looked like consumers were hibernating in December, and all they needed was an excuse to go on a spending spree. The weather provided that.
accelerate early expansion expected fed inflation projected quarter third
With the expansion projected to accelerate in the third quarter and inflation projected to be contained, the Fed is expected to 'play the same tune' and 'dance the same step' into early 2006.
baton commercial ease expect housing leadership momentum overall pattern public remains starts taking
The overall momentum in construction remains solid. We expect this pattern to continue, with public and commercial construction taking the leadership baton in 2006 as housing starts ease back moderately.
borrowing demand driven early expectation higher housing interest line towards translate ultimately
This is in line with our expectation that demand for new housing would 'cool off' towards the end of 2005 and in early 2006 as higher short-term interest rates, driven by the Fed, would ultimately translate into higher long-term borrowing rates.
impressive industries kicked quarter second services
Services industries kicked off the second quarter with very impressive momentum.
coming existing following northeast peaked sales september
Existing sales peaked nationally back in September and have been coming down. The Northeast is following that pattern.