Brian Bethune
Brian Bethune
business capacity gaining heading justifies level second strength
Manufacturing is gaining strength heading into the second quarter. We have a level of capacity use that justifies more business investment.
business certainly consumer drivers four growth investment last principal
Business investment is going to be one of the principal drivers of growth in 2006. The consumer will still be there ... (but) certainly won't be as ebullient as the last four years.
business continued corporate generally good help leads profits rebound saw signal
We saw a big rebound in corporate profits and that's a good signal for continued business investment. That generally leads to hiring, which will help keep consumption going.
baked excellent picking quarter sector service
The service sector is picking up some momentum. An excellent quarter is just baked in the cake.
picking sector service
The service sector is picking up some momentum.
crops damage department estimates eventual farms force katrina lessons loses production revised risk state
The risk to crops and farms won't be as significant if it loses force, ... When you look at the lessons from Katrina, the eventual damage to agriculture was less than feared. The department of agriculture actually revised up its estimates of production in the state after Katrina passed.
baked coming early excellent momentum quarter
There's so much momentum coming early into this quarter that an excellent quarter is just baked in the cake.
bump intense pressure prices temporary
Pressure to bump prices up, or levy temporary freight surcharges, will become more intense in September,
ahead continue second spending
Consumption spending will continue to plod ahead in the second quarter.
behaving core energy feed generally inflation lengthy modest persistent pressure price prices producer quite
Core producer price inflation generally has been behaving quite well. We think there's going to be some modest upward pressure as energy prices feed through the system, but it's not going to be a persistent or lengthy problem.
consumers definitely excuse looked needed provided spending strong weather
We're definitely going to see a very strong first quarter. It looked like consumers were hibernating in December, and all they needed was an excuse to go on a spending spree. The weather provided that.
gust wind
That was a gust of wind in the spinnaker.
accelerate early expansion expected fed inflation projected quarter third
With the expansion projected to accelerate in the third quarter and inflation projected to be contained, the Fed is expected to 'play the same tune' and 'dance the same step' into early 2006.
advantage companies cost cover demand expecting pressure strong
We are expecting to see some pressure on inflation. Companies are going to take advantage of strong demand to at least cover their cost increases.