Brian Bethune
Brian Bethune
continue expected housing january mortgage pop purchase sales suggesting track
Mortgage purchase applications continue to track downwards, suggesting that most of the expected pop in housing sales in January was weather-related.
cooling federal gradual housing market news welcome
The gradual cooling off of the housing market will be welcome news at the Federal Reserve.
activity boost expected housing january provide temporary warm weather
The warm weather in January will provide a temporary upward boost to housing construction, but activity is expected to taper off in February.
baton commercial ease expect housing leadership momentum overall pattern public remains starts taking
The overall momentum in construction remains solid. We expect this pattern to continue, with public and commercial construction taking the leadership baton in 2006 as housing starts ease back moderately.
borrowing demand driven early expectation higher housing interest line towards translate ultimately
This is in line with our expectation that demand for new housing would 'cool off' towards the end of 2005 and in early 2006 as higher short-term interest rates, driven by the Fed, would ultimately translate into higher long-term borrowing rates.
cut flow housing increasing meet people prices respond retirement save stock
If housing and stock prices go down, people will respond by increasing the flow of savings. If they have to save more to meet retirement objectives, then they'll have to cut down on consumption.
baked excellent picking quarter sector service
The service sector is picking up some momentum. An excellent quarter is just baked in the cake.
picking sector service
The service sector is picking up some momentum.
crops damage department estimates eventual farms force katrina lessons loses production revised risk state
The risk to crops and farms won't be as significant if it loses force, ... When you look at the lessons from Katrina, the eventual damage to agriculture was less than feared. The department of agriculture actually revised up its estimates of production in the state after Katrina passed.
baked coming early excellent momentum quarter
There's so much momentum coming early into this quarter that an excellent quarter is just baked in the cake.
bump intense pressure prices temporary
Pressure to bump prices up, or levy temporary freight surcharges, will become more intense in September,
ahead continue second spending
Consumption spending will continue to plod ahead in the second quarter.
behaving core energy feed generally inflation lengthy modest persistent pressure price prices producer quite
Core producer price inflation generally has been behaving quite well. We think there's going to be some modest upward pressure as energy prices feed through the system, but it's not going to be a persistent or lengthy problem.
consumers definitely excuse looked needed provided spending strong weather
We're definitely going to see a very strong first quarter. It looked like consumers were hibernating in December, and all they needed was an excuse to go on a spending spree. The weather provided that.