Brian Bethune
Brian Bethune
coming existing following northeast peaked sales september
Existing sales peaked nationally back in September and have been coming down. The Northeast is following that pattern.
fed quite response robotic start sudden
The Fed has been kind of on autopilot here for quite a while, ... Now all of a sudden they're going to have to start doing some work. I don't think a robotic response is appropriate here.
aware budget check deficit doctor gaining interest lose rates slow sudden tells until
The budget deficit is like gaining weight. You are not really aware of it until at some point, all of a sudden you can't do what you want to do because you are heavier. Interest rates go up and slow things down. Then you go to your check up and the doctor tells you you got to lose 25 pounds.
ahead continue second spending
Consumption spending will continue to plod ahead in the second quarter.
behaving core energy feed generally inflation lengthy modest persistent pressure price prices producer quite
Core producer price inflation generally has been behaving quite well. We think there's going to be some modest upward pressure as energy prices feed through the system, but it's not going to be a persistent or lengthy problem.
crops damage department estimates eventual farms force katrina lessons loses production revised risk state
The risk to crops and farms won't be as significant if it loses force, ... When you look at the lessons from Katrina, the eventual damage to agriculture was less than feared. The department of agriculture actually revised up its estimates of production in the state after Katrina passed.
basically hike rate
They're basically signaling, 'Expect one more rate hike here' and that's what we are basically expecting.
activity boost expected housing january provide temporary warm weather
The warm weather in January will provide a temporary upward boost to housing construction, but activity is expected to taper off in February.
baked coming early excellent momentum quarter
There's so much momentum coming early into this quarter that an excellent quarter is just baked in the cake.
bump intense pressure prices temporary
Pressure to bump prices up, or levy temporary freight surcharges, will become more intense in September,
activity early economy forward growth line output overall overseas picked quarter second sector solid strong stronger underlying
Activity in the manufacturing sector picked up early in the second quarter, in line with strong underlying fundamentals in the economy and stronger overseas demand. We can look forward to solid overall output growth in the second quarter of 2006.
bias companies demand higher intact quarter raise rates second strong toward
Demand is strong enough for companies to raise prices. This will keep the Fed's bias toward higher rates intact through the second quarter of 2006.
ahead capital cyclical demand europe expected firm gaining goods japan markets months overseas remain
Demand for capital goods in overseas markets is expected to remain firm in the months ahead as cyclical recoveries in Europe and Japan are gaining momentum.
cut flow housing increasing meet people prices respond retirement save stock
If housing and stock prices go down, people will respond by increasing the flow of savings. If they have to save more to meet retirement objectives, then they'll have to cut down on consumption.