Brian Bethune
Brian Bethune
combined confidence consumer employment further gains levels overall quarter setting solid stage
Further gains in employment combined with better levels for consumer confidence overall are setting the stage for very solid consumption gains in the first quarter of 2006.
advantage companies cost cover demand expecting pressure strong
We are expecting to see some pressure on inflation. Companies are going to take advantage of strong demand to at least cover their cost increases.
continues demand domestic energy external situation sources supply terms
There is an imbalance in terms of the demand and supply of energy which continues to be satisfied, or is increasingly satisfied, by external sources of energy products. Now we have a situation that has been every more complicated because of a domestic supply shock.
consumers definitely excuse looked needed provided spending strong weather
We're definitely going to see a very strong first quarter. It looked like consumers were hibernating in December, and all they needed was an excuse to go on a spending spree. The weather provided that.
accelerate early expansion expected fed inflation projected quarter third
With the expansion projected to accelerate in the third quarter and inflation projected to be contained, the Fed is expected to 'play the same tune' and 'dance the same step' into early 2006.
baton commercial ease expect housing leadership momentum overall pattern public remains starts taking
The overall momentum in construction remains solid. We expect this pattern to continue, with public and commercial construction taking the leadership baton in 2006 as housing starts ease back moderately.
farmers fish gets lost price producers production profits recover seafood shrimp
The only consolation to farmers is that the price of seafood will go up further. So when production gets back on track, fish and shrimp producers can use the profits to recover their lost costs.
aircraft drop expected impact month noise orders outlook strictly
The expected drop in aircraft orders is strictly month-to- month noise and does not have any impact on the outlook for growth.
baked excellent picking quarter sector service
The service sector is picking up some momentum. An excellent quarter is just baked in the cake.
picking sector service
The service sector is picking up some momentum.
definitely flag generally goes percent red yellow
Generally speaking, when it is over 75 percent of GDP, then the yellow flag goes out. I would say 95 percent of GDP and over is definitely a red flag.
additional attractive clearly economic growth side terms
In terms of economic growth, the fundamentals are clearly on the side of the U.S.. We don't think there's going to be a lot of additional momentum, but even if (the dollar) treads water, it's still going to be an attractive investment.
borrowing demand driven early expectation higher housing interest line towards translate ultimately
This is in line with our expectation that demand for new housing would 'cool off' towards the end of 2005 and in early 2006 as higher short-term interest rates, driven by the Fed, would ultimately translate into higher long-term borrowing rates.
impressive industries kicked quarter second services
Services industries kicked off the second quarter with very impressive momentum.