Brian Bethune
Brian Bethune
gust wind
That was a gust of wind in the spinnaker.
europe gaining growth japan provide
Recoveries in Europe and Japan are gaining momentum. This should provide the underpinnings for respectable growth in exports.
business capacity gaining heading justifies level second strength
Manufacturing is gaining strength heading into the second quarter. We have a level of capacity use that justifies more business investment.
consumers definitely excuse looked needed provided spending strong weather
We're definitely going to see a very strong first quarter. It looked like consumers were hibernating in December, and all they needed was an excuse to go on a spending spree. The weather provided that.
accelerate early expansion expected fed inflation projected quarter third
With the expansion projected to accelerate in the third quarter and inflation projected to be contained, the Fed is expected to 'play the same tune' and 'dance the same step' into early 2006.
baton commercial ease expect housing leadership momentum overall pattern public remains starts taking
The overall momentum in construction remains solid. We expect this pattern to continue, with public and commercial construction taking the leadership baton in 2006 as housing starts ease back moderately.
borrowing demand driven early expectation higher housing interest line towards translate ultimately
This is in line with our expectation that demand for new housing would 'cool off' towards the end of 2005 and in early 2006 as higher short-term interest rates, driven by the Fed, would ultimately translate into higher long-term borrowing rates.
impressive industries kicked quarter second services
Services industries kicked off the second quarter with very impressive momentum.
coming existing following northeast peaked sales september
Existing sales peaked nationally back in September and have been coming down. The Northeast is following that pattern.
fed quite response robotic start sudden
The Fed has been kind of on autopilot here for quite a while, ... Now all of a sudden they're going to have to start doing some work. I don't think a robotic response is appropriate here.
activity boost expected housing january provide temporary warm weather
The warm weather in January will provide a temporary upward boost to housing construction, but activity is expected to taper off in February.
looks road tells terms
What this tells us in terms of the fundamentals is the road looks fine.
continued core drop energy federal inflation level months next painful pressure price record relief reserve several spells top vigilant welcome
While the record drop in the top level index spells welcome relief from the painful post-hurricane energy price spikes in September, continued pressure on the core index over the next several months will keep the Federal Reserve vigilant on the inflation watch.
activity gains job normal overall solid start terms
We'll have very solid overall job gains that will punctuate the start of more normal activity in terms of employment,