Brian Bethune
Brian Bethune
accelerate early expansion expected fed inflation projected quarter third
With the expansion projected to accelerate in the third quarter and inflation projected to be contained, the Fed is expected to 'play the same tune' and 'dance the same step' into early 2006.
confidence consumer continue employment expected gains grow growth household income market rates stock support sustain
Gains in employment and the stock market continue to support confidence. Household income is expected to grow at rates that will sustain growth in consumer spending.
continue expected housing january mortgage pop purchase sales suggesting track
Mortgage purchase applications continue to track downwards, suggesting that most of the expected pop in housing sales in January was weather-related.
activity boost expected housing january provide temporary warm weather
The warm weather in January will provide a temporary upward boost to housing construction, but activity is expected to taper off in February.
aircraft drop expected impact month noise orders outlook strictly
The expected drop in aircraft orders is strictly month-to- month noise and does not have any impact on the outlook for growth.
ahead capital cyclical demand europe expected firm gaining goods japan markets months overseas remain
Demand for capital goods in overseas markets is expected to remain firm in the months ahead as cyclical recoveries in Europe and Japan are gaining momentum.
baked excellent picking quarter sector service
The service sector is picking up some momentum. An excellent quarter is just baked in the cake.
picking sector service
The service sector is picking up some momentum.
crops damage department estimates eventual farms force katrina lessons loses production revised risk state
The risk to crops and farms won't be as significant if it loses force, ... When you look at the lessons from Katrina, the eventual damage to agriculture was less than feared. The department of agriculture actually revised up its estimates of production in the state after Katrina passed.
baked coming early excellent momentum quarter
There's so much momentum coming early into this quarter that an excellent quarter is just baked in the cake.
bump intense pressure prices temporary
Pressure to bump prices up, or levy temporary freight surcharges, will become more intense in September,
ahead continue second spending
Consumption spending will continue to plod ahead in the second quarter.
behaving core energy feed generally inflation lengthy modest persistent pressure price prices producer quite
Core producer price inflation generally has been behaving quite well. We think there's going to be some modest upward pressure as energy prices feed through the system, but it's not going to be a persistent or lengthy problem.
consumers definitely excuse looked needed provided spending strong weather
We're definitely going to see a very strong first quarter. It looked like consumers were hibernating in December, and all they needed was an excuse to go on a spending spree. The weather provided that.