Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
bond feeling fine headed heading interest key looks market rates starting street struggling technical wall
The 10-year bond looks like it's headed higher, so I think the feeling is starting to pervade Wall Street that economy's fine and interest rates are heading higher. But the market has (also) been choppy and struggling with some key technical levels.
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We need some inference from the Fed that interest rates beyond June are in doubt,
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The problems are the same: Interest rates are high, and the economy is strong. It is affecting those sectors that are credit sensitive.
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What you are seeing is the likelihood that interest rates will not go higher next week, making it easier to give these big cap growth stocks high valuations.
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I would characterize this as a correction long in coming. We're coming off of this tremendous run, plus you've got oil prices near all-time highs and the prospect of higher interest rates through the end of the year, and so you're seeing some profit taking.
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There is also a little bit of nervousness ahead of tomorrow's employment report, which is expected to be strong. It just focuses investors on the higher interest rates that are still in the offing.
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It's going to be push-pull this week, ... Will earnings be strong and drive the Dow to 12,000, or will higher rates work to push the Dow lower?
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I think to an extent we've taken for granted the last few Fed meetings, and next week's meeting takes on more significance, ... A quarter-point hike is pretty much expected, but I think the relative bumpiness of the recent economic news could mean the Fed will indicate that rates may not rise as aggressively last year as people had been thinking.
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I think the year starts out very similar to how it's ending. Just because a stock is cheap doesn't mean it should be bought ? you have to look at the growth rate and I think the Fed lowering interest rates is going to be very important.
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Higher interest rates are an impediment to companies where cost is important and that's Old Economy stocks, ... What we are seeing is a defensive move into technology stocks.
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The intermediate background look in terms of interest rates peaking and the economy slowing to a more sustainable pace without any undue harm is slowly going to play itself out. I would be very shocked if the GDP came in anywhere higher than estimates because Wall Street is already expressing its confidence that the economy is slowing down.
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I look at a market here that is going to continue to be impacted by rates going higher, ... and I think it's heading into one of those post-earnings periods where it meanders. It's hard to see any substantive reason for us to move higher.
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There's worry about higher interest rates. The bond market has been very weak, and we can assume the higher interest rates are signs of a rebounding economy. This gives people a feeling of comfort, but we also worry about how rates are going to go and whether it will crimp economic activity further down the road.
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I don't think there's anything that will deter the Fed from lowering interest rates in August. I think the story is going to be the continuing belief that there is a mixed story on Wall Street that has been brought out, in terms of technology. The visibility story is changing somewhat to the 'we see the bottom in sight' scenario.