Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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Profit taking will be key words today (Thursday) and over the next couple of weeks. The Fed's rate cut yesterday bodes well for the longer term but near term it is an excuse to take profits. Cisco's story is another excuse to take profits in technology.
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There's no (economic) stabilization yet, but it now brings the possibility of continued aggressive Fed moves. We're four cuts deep into an interest rate cycle and we're going to get a fifth. That's going to help the economy down the road -- it's not a question of 'Will it?' but it's a question of when.
bond feeling fine headed heading interest key looks market rates starting street struggling technical wall
The 10-year bond looks like it's headed higher, so I think the feeling is starting to pervade Wall Street that economy's fine and interest rates are heading higher. But the market has (also) been choppy and struggling with some key technical levels.
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I think people are looking forward to the end of rate hikes and if there's no dramatic change in the wording of the statement tomorrow, that could hurt the market.
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We need some inference from the Fed that interest rates beyond June are in doubt,
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The problems are the same: Interest rates are high, and the economy is strong. It is affecting those sectors that are credit sensitive.
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We think 3.5 percent is a good point for the Fed to take a break to measure the economy and the impact of its rate hikes. If the economy does appear to be picking up, they could start raising again.
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What you are seeing is the likelihood that interest rates will not go higher next week, making it easier to give these big cap growth stocks high valuations.
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I expect (ECI) to be very tame and show now inflation. It's the GDP I'm concerned about. If either one doesn't come in line (with expectations), the market will remain under pressure, ... I'm looking at the GDP number because that's going to give us a direct causal effect to how well the interest rate hikes have slowed the economy down.
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I would characterize this as a correction long in coming. We're coming off of this tremendous run, plus you've got oil prices near all-time highs and the prospect of higher interest rates through the end of the year, and so you're seeing some profit taking.
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There is also a little bit of nervousness ahead of tomorrow's employment report, which is expected to be strong. It just focuses investors on the higher interest rates that are still in the offing.
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It's going to be another confidence building story the closer we get to the Fed meeting. I believe that the unemployment rate and the NAPM numbers will be the key numbers.
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It's going to be push-pull this week, ... Will earnings be strong and drive the Dow to 12,000, or will higher rates work to push the Dow lower?
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It was exactly what Wall Street thought. The wording was exact -- no hike, sees inflation risk ahead, recent data shows moderating slowdown is still tentative and preliminary, and leaves open (a) rate hike in August.