Barry Hyman

Barry Hyman
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Better-than-expected LEI implies a strong economy. It also implies higher interest rates.
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There's no (economic) stabilization yet, but it now brings the possibility of continued aggressive Fed moves. We're four cuts deep into an interest rate cycle and we're going to get a fifth. That's going to help the economy down the road -- it's not a question of 'Will it?' but it's a question of when.
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It doesn't really determine that this year is going to be a down year. What it really indicates is the confusion over whether we're in a growth economy or not.
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The problems are the same: Interest rates are high, and the economy is strong. It is affecting those sectors that are credit sensitive.
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We think 3.5 percent is a good point for the Fed to take a break to measure the economy and the impact of its rate hikes. If the economy does appear to be picking up, they could start raising again.
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I expect (ECI) to be very tame and show now inflation. It's the GDP I'm concerned about. If either one doesn't come in line (with expectations), the market will remain under pressure, ... I'm looking at the GDP number because that's going to give us a direct causal effect to how well the interest rate hikes have slowed the economy down.
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If we get any guidance that the Fed would be guiding toward a neutral stance, that could be a (positive) impetus, ... The economy is slowing but not recessing and the Fed will be there if necessary.
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We're supported by a rebounding economy after a weaker fourth quarter, and recently lower oil prices. But that's countered by concerns about slower earnings growth and higher inflation.
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We seem to go from worries about the economy slowing down to appreciating that the economy remains strong and can bounce back from slower fourth-quarter GDP growth.
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It will be interesting to see how quickly the market goes to worrying about what the Fed will do in August. We've just seen one month's statistics showing the economy is slowing.
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It's important that OPEC comes to a conclusion to help with global supply but it may be too late for the summer season. High oil prices do not help the economy and it will still contribute to inflationary numbers. Oil will be a continuing story to see how the price of oil reacts over the next three weeks to these increases.
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The productivity numbers today (Thursday) and tomorrow's (Friday's) report do nothing to support a bullish market. I would be concerned if we saw the unemployment drop below 4 percent because that would show the economy is not slowing down.
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The productivity number is key toward determining whether the economy can show some stabilization. We've seen weakening numbers, which hasn't helped, but there is no inflation story to talk about here.
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The psychology is just not there for the economy to make any substantial move until we get through the Fed meeting. There's really no selling pressure, it's just tremendous volatility.