Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
economic largely likelihood path recent recovery strongly suggest towards trends
Recent trends in this index strongly suggest that the largely anticipated path towards economic recovery has in all likelihood already begun,
alive economic growth happen imagine numbers observed percent recent remains rise sluggish towards trend underlying
These numbers tell us that the underlying productivity surge observed in recent years remains alive and well. If productivity could rise by 1.1 percent during a sluggish growth environment, imagine what can happen once the U.S. reverts back towards trend economic growth.
continuing economic economy gradual gravitate looks pace though towards
It now looks as though the economy is continuing to gravitate towards a more gradual pace of economic growth.
consensus june number seal tip towards
This week's CPI will seal (the Fed's decision). If we get a number at consensus or a little above, that'll tip it towards a June increase.
consensus june number seal tip towards
This week's CPI will seal (the Fed's decision), ... If we get a number at consensus or a little above, that'll tip it towards a June increase.
continued despite fed greenspan improvement inclined labor latest market might move neutral remain risks small suggest testimony towards
The small improvement in labor market conditions, despite the continued risks that remain on this front, do suggest that even with all the caveats that Greenspan echoed in his latest testimony ... the Fed might be inclined to move towards a neutral risk bias.
act calendar economic expect financial markets near next panic reassuring recovery remain revealing risks several telling towards weakness weighed willing within
By telling us that the risks are more heavily weighed towards weakness while simultaneously stating that they expect an economic recovery within the next several calendar quarters, they are revealing that they remain willing to act if they need to while also reassuring financial markets that there is no need for panic over the near term.
basically
What this does is basically vindicate Greenspan's policy. In 2000, we're going to see more of a gradualist policy.
basically
What this does is basically vindicate Greenspan's policy,
battery conclusion despite effects energy exclude higher job market prices recent
When we exclude the effects of the recent hurricanes, we have to come away with the conclusion that despite higher energy prices and a battery of hurricanes, the job market is not doing all that bad.
basically case jobs million missing stage
We're basically missing 5.1 million jobs at this stage of the expansion. You could even call it the case of the missing jobs, ... different paradigm.
add confident empty environment growth inventory knows rising shelves suggest
The plunge in inventory accumulation does suggest that firms are not confident enough to add merchandise to their shelves. But they will not be able to do this indefinitely because everyone knows that sporting empty shelves in a rising growth environment is not prudent.
core cost early energy increases jump limited longer mature pass power pricing rest saw seeing today whenever
We still see limited penetration into the rest of the economy. It's too early to say you're seeing pricing power to pass on the energy cost increases just because you saw just a jump in the core PPI number. The world has changed. In the old traditional world, whenever you had mature expansion, you had pricing power. Today with globalization, that's no longer the case.
assured continue fed higher markets push rates remain short term
With this figure, markets can remain all but assured that the Fed will continue to push short term rates higher well into 2006.