Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
distinct interest pushing rates
Crowding out could become a distinct possibility in the future, pushing up interest rates significantly in 2005 and beyond,
argentina compared economy mexico potential relatively small
Argentina is not a potential nightmare. It's a relatively small economy compared to Mexico and Brazil.
businesses coming continued employment gains hiring increase maintain might primarily reasons seeing temporary trying
Employment gains really haven't come from full-time workers. They're coming primarily from part-time, temporary help, ... Businesses are still trying to maintain flexibility by not hiring more expensive, full-time workers. That might be one of the reasons why we're seeing an increase in continued claims.
confidence consistent consumers east employment gains impact market michigan middle overall picture report retail rising sales situation slower stock taking turmoil
Employment gains are rising at a slower rate, retail sales are decelerating somewhat, the stock market is going through some turmoil and the Middle East situation is also probably having a dampening impact on consumers' willingness to spend, ... So I think the Michigan confidence report is consistent with an overall picture in which consumers are doing well, but probably taking a breather for a while.
economy seems
Even before the attack, the economy seems to have relapsed into the doldrums,
economy ensure fed fuel inflation left measures preventive taking
There's so much liquidity in the economy right now that, left alone, it could become fuel for inflation, ... I can see the Fed taking preventive measures to ensure inflation doesn't become a problem.
close higher number overall somewhat
Probably the overall (CPI) number will be somewhat higher than anticipated, but like PPI, the core-number should be close to forecasts,
both bring business closure confidence consumer depressed economy expect improve somehow stock taking war
Both consumer and business confidence is depressed because of uncertainty surrounding the war, ... If we can somehow bring closure to the war situation, I would expect confidence to improve dramatically, taking with it the economy and the stock market.
beginning begun business capital consumer cylinders economic growth improve inventory outside spending swings third
The third cylinder of economic growth is beginning to fire, ... The other two cylinders are inventory swings and consumer spending. Outside of telecommunications and airplanes, business capital spending has begun to improve already, beginning in the first quarter.
assuming corporate half hopefully likely market negative offset profits psychology rates rise second stock
Corporate profits are likely to rise at double-digit rates in the second half of the year. And that will be hopefully enough to offset some of the negative psychology in the stock market -- assuming it doesn't get worse.
customers increasing move positive respond saying talk
Customers we talk to are saying they're going to respond to increasing demand, but they won't do anything in anticipation of increasing demand, ... That's why employment, inventories and manufacturing will move in positive directions, but I don't think it will be anything spectacular.
aid areas economic massive pump washington
Washington will pump massive amounts of aid into the Katrina-affected areas boosting economic activities.
calls fourth given larger likely range scenario slow start third
Without a doubt, there will be a contraction in the third quarter's GDP of approximately 0.9 percent, ... Given the slow start in October, the most likely scenario calls for a larger contraction in the 2.8-percent range in the fourth quarter.
coming continues demand drag driver economic future growth key opposed pick seen
Manufacturing could be a key driver of economic growth in the future, as opposed to being a big drag as we've seen in the past, ... Even employment, which has been weak, should be coming around as demand continues to pick up steam.