Sherry Cooper
Sherry Cooper
Sherry S. Cooperis a Canadian-American economist. Cooper is currently Chief Economist for Dominion Lending Centres. She was Executive Vice-President and Chief Economist of BMO Financial Group, with responsibilities for economic forecasting and risk assessment. She comments regularly in the press on financial issues...
age-and-aging average birth increase population rates
Birth rates would plunge and the average age of the population would increase significantly.
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Wages are still running a bit hot for comfort, the jobless rate is still quite low and the underlying trend in employment (especially full-time) remains strong.
certainly employment growth rate second though
Today's US employment report, though not a blockbuster, certainly portends at least a 3% growth rate in the second quarter.
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Right now, it appears that the (Fed) believes that the odds are better than 50-50 that another 25 basis point rate hike will be warranted.
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My take is that the Fed will continue to raise overnight rates until it feels it has moved from a stimulative to a neutral policy stance. That will likely take the funds rate to 4 per cent-to-4.25 per cent by yearend.
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This report will not change the Fed's view on the inflation outlook -- they will keep rates low for still some months to come.
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We remain of the view that next week's rate hike will not be the Fed's last work this cycle. Indeed, they will likely eventually unwind all of last fall's crisis-induced easing.
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(Today's data) will likely keep the Bank of Canada on track for a rate hike at next week's decision,
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Despite slowing job growth momentum, the Fed is going to pay attention to the diminishing slack (the 5 per cent unemployment rate could be as low as 4.8 per cent if not for the hurricanes) and the pickup in wage pressures,
activity becoming beginning bite evident higher housing impact interest pushed rates result sign start weakness
It is becoming more evident that higher interest rates are beginning to take a bite out of the red-hot housing market, ... While today's housing start result exaggerated weakness in the sector, it is yet another sign that the impact of higher rates has pushed housing activity off its peak.
commodity hike prices rate scales tips
Right now, the acceleration in commodity prices tips the scales for a 16th and a 17th rate hike by the Fed.
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Recall the Fed's assessment following the (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting on Aug. 24, that the dual summertime rate hikes 'should markedly diminish the risk of inflation going forward,' ... This call is looking more tenuous with every passing day.
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High energy prices keep on working their way through the system. The risks remain skewed to a mild up-creep in core inflation during the months ahead, which will keep the Fed on track for another rate hike in March and likely in May.
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I'm not worried about inflation per se ; I'm worried about inflation in asset prices. When the Fed has been aggressively easy in the past, it's ended up having to come in and aggressively raise interest rates and cause a lot of unnecessary dislocation.