Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
ahead continued data face fed hike marginal market rates sees turning
This is what the market did in 1974, ahead of a slowdown in 1975, and the Fed continued to hike rates in the face of marginal data turning worse, ... I don't see where the Fed sees 'traction'.
assessment change economy fed growth job risks turnaround
How could we have such a turnaround in job growth and have the Fed find that it doesn't change its assessment of risks in the economy whatsoever?
challenge few hand inflation issues labor sharp though turned
I don't think inflation is that much of a concern. However, there are still a few short-term issues at hand that could challenge spending, such as the labor market. Though it had improved, it hasn't yet turned a sharp corner.
claims improvement numbers quite strange turn
The claims numbers always do strange things at the end of the year. There was some improvement at the turn of the year, but the story is that claims are gravitating back to the 400,000, where they were for quite while.
energy inflation rising seems storm weathered
Inflation seems to have weathered the storm of rising energy prices.
fed inflation worried wrong
Inflation is very contained. It's not going anywhere. The Fed is little too worried about the wrong thing. I'm more worried about growth.
inflation
Inflation is very contained; it's not going anywhere.
across fed horizons inflation left months rising six waiting wondering
Inflation is rising in more sectors than it is falling. It is doing so across horizons of one month, six months and 12 months. We are left in all this wondering what the Fed is up to and what it is waiting for.
across areas broad concerned core declines fed growth inflation percent prices reason spectrum
Inflation decelerated across a broad spectrum of core CPI areas -- about 40 percent of prices in the core showed declines in their year-over-year growth rate. That's a big proportion. The Fed is concerned and has a reason to be concerned.
direction fed huge step wants
It's not good. It's a huge step back for the Fed. It's not the direction where the Fed wants to go. It's unsettling.
absolutely call drive drop everybody fed federal impact knows move reserve time version water
Everybody knows what the Fed is doing, but no one knows which move is going to impact the market. I call it a version of Federal Reserve water torture: a drop at a time and after a while it will drive you absolutely batty.
business costs decide face group higher hiking hurt insurance jobs run small taxes whom worth
There's that group of small business owners, where a lot of the jobs are, for whom hiking taxes will hurt their business. They already face higher heating costs, insurance costs -- at some point, they may decide there are too many costs to run a business and decide it's not worth it any more.
greenspan line price says stability telling
This is in line with what Mr. Greenspan has been telling us, which is that we have price stability for goods. But he says he doesn't think we have price stability for services.
batch consistent consumer early numbers reports says seen severe signal soft softness spending strength
It's really a soft batch of numbers today. Nothing says 'recession' or severe slowdown but there is a consistent signal of softness that permeates these reports and belies some of the strength in consumer spending that we have seen early in the year.