Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
compensate energy eventually fact itself month period prices work works
Eventually you have other prices going down to compensate for the fact that energy went up. But that doesn't work itself out in a month or two; it works out over a period of time.
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People are aware of what energy prices are doing to their pocketbooks, and their company,
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You count up the products (showing price increases) and you see there's a little more pressure just below the surface, ... The overall energy number showed a big decline. That covers up a lot of ills. But the PPI was the warning shot across the bow. With the CPI report we dodged the bullet.
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Inflation seems to have weathered the storm of rising energy prices.
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What's going on here is we've got a lot of growth. We've seen very, very strong consumption.
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The stock market is earnings-oriented. But if you're looking at earnings, you're not seeing anything improving.
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The sell-off in bonds is for real and is the correct reaction. The Fed will need confirmation to act. The bond market won't. It takes no prisoners.
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The soft spot is looking to be bigger and softer all the time.
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The rise, however, does not mean that housing is out of the woods -- far from it. The Fed is still hiking.
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During this recent period there may be some extra spending on the part of those recovering from hurricane disasters. But it is also true that comprehensive consumer spending has been outstripping income growth over this period,
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Each Fed Chairman has to go through his own, on-the-job, trial by fire. There is no other way.
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Prices don't decline like this unless you've got a lot of slack demand conditions.
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Private sector job growth is still challenged. The report is not very good for the month alone, but the trends have actually improved, thanks to the revisions.
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People don't look at economic data. But they know their own firm, they know if it's solid, they know if it's hiring and if people are getting raises. Even if they're not looking for a job, they know what's going on with their brother or sister or friend's job search. That's what makes these surveys powerful.