Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
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Worker productivity generally creates a scenario where employees realize they can begin to demand more for what they do. While the year-over-year productivity gains are still quite good, there is some evidence that wage inflation may be starting to creep in. The Fed won't like this.
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We've still got a lot of job growth, but it's not pressuring the unemployment rate, ... That's a critical thing for the Fed -- between the unemployment rate and the nice average hourly earnings rate figure, which was up only a penny, I think the Federal Reserve will breathe pretty easily with this report.
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I think we're going to have a slower recovery, ... There are other things that suggest there are limits to what the Fed can do.
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We continue to see Federal Reserve officials saying they want the economy to grow as fast as it can, but they're the ones who determine where that speed limit is.
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Inflation is very contained. It's not going anywhere. The Fed is little too worried about the wrong thing. I'm more worried about growth.
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Inflation is rising in more sectors than it is falling. It is doing so across horizons of one month, six months and 12 months. We are left in all this wondering what the Fed is up to and what it is waiting for.
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Inflation decelerated across a broad spectrum of core CPI areas -- about 40 percent of prices in the core showed declines in their year-over-year growth rate. That's a big proportion. The Fed is concerned and has a reason to be concerned.
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It's not good. It's a huge step back for the Fed. It's not the direction where the Fed wants to go. It's unsettling.
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Everybody knows what the Fed is doing, but no one knows which move is going to impact the market. I call it a version of Federal Reserve water torture: a drop at a time and after a while it will drive you absolutely batty.
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The Fed has never said this borrowing is a mistake and that this is a problem.
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The Federal Reserve, with the ink barely dry on its statement of intent to move in a measured pace, has begun a new theme that says 'measured' may be too slow.
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The Federal Reserve has talked about the economy being in a soft spot -- well, it's really in a soft spot.
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Credibility is a key here. The Fed can't go out hammering away at some of these issues and then say, 'Oh, never mind,' when one of the key dates comes. So I think that's something else that sort of forces the Fed to put its cards on the table.
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Each Fed Chairman has to go through his own, on-the-job, trial by fire. There is no other way.