Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
cut fed hold might quite rate shows suggest work
This shows the Fed rate cut was really quite needed, ... and would probably suggest the Fed might have more work to do to hold things together.
fed move opposite rates
There are rates that may not move at all and there are rates that may move opposite to what the Fed has done.
afraid brakes fed foot investors people perhaps regular start tapping
Most people were afraid that we'd start to see some inflation, but I don't think there's much here. The Fed still has its foot on brakes and will keep tapping them at regular intervals, but perhaps not as much as investors had been expecting.
change fed growth jobs last less month next number six weak zero
But even if you have a weak number next month, even if you get zero growth, you'd be averaging about 150,000 new jobs a month (for the last six months.) So the Fed would need to see something less than zero to change its mind.
average breathe critical earnings easily fed federal job nice rate reserve
We've still got a lot of job growth, but it's not pressuring the unemployment rate, ... That's a critical thing for the Fed -- between the unemployment rate and the nice average hourly earnings rate figure, which was up only a penny, I think the Federal Reserve will breathe pretty easily with this report.
fed limits slower suggest
I think we're going to have a slower recovery, ... There are other things that suggest there are limits to what the Fed can do.
begin creates creep demand employees evidence fed gains generally inflation quite realize scenario starting wage worker
Worker productivity generally creates a scenario where employees realize they can begin to demand more for what they do. While the year-over-year productivity gains are still quite good, there is some evidence that wage inflation may be starting to creep in. The Fed won't like this.
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We continue to see Federal Reserve officials saying they want the economy to grow as fast as it can, but they're the ones who determine where that speed limit is.
fed honest president trying
What we see is a Fed president trying to be honest with us.
bonds correct fed market takes
The sell-off in bonds is for real and is the correct reaction. The Fed will need confirmation to act. The bond market won't. It takes no prisoners.
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How could we have such a turnaround in job growth and have the Fed find that it doesn't change its assessment of risks in the economy whatsoever?
fed inflation worried wrong
Inflation is very contained. It's not going anywhere. The Fed is little too worried about the wrong thing. I'm more worried about growth.
across fed horizons inflation left months rising six waiting wondering
Inflation is rising in more sectors than it is falling. It is doing so across horizons of one month, six months and 12 months. We are left in all this wondering what the Fed is up to and what it is waiting for.
across areas broad concerned core declines fed growth inflation percent prices reason spectrum
Inflation decelerated across a broad spectrum of core CPI areas -- about 40 percent of prices in the core showed declines in their year-over-year growth rate. That's a big proportion. The Fed is concerned and has a reason to be concerned.