Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
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The sell-off in bonds is for real and is the correct reaction. The Fed will need confirmation to act. The bond market won't. It takes no prisoners.
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The rise, however, does not mean that housing is out of the woods -- far from it. The Fed is still hiking.
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Each Fed Chairman has to go through his own, on-the-job, trial by fire. There is no other way.
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Credibility is a key here. The Fed can't go out hammering away at some of these issues and then say, 'Oh, never mind,' when one of the key dates comes. So I think that's something else that sort of forces the Fed to put its cards on the table.
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We continue to see Federal Reserve officials saying they want the economy to grow as fast as it can, but they're the ones who determine where that speed limit is.
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But even if you have a weak number next month, even if you get zero growth, you'd be averaging about 150,000 new jobs a month (for the last six months.) So the Fed would need to see something less than zero to change its mind.
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Most people were afraid that we'd start to see some inflation, but I don't think there's much here. The Fed still has its foot on brakes and will keep tapping them at regular intervals, but perhaps not as much as investors had been expecting.
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This shows the Fed rate cut was really quite needed, ... and would probably suggest the Fed might have more work to do to hold things together.
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There are rates that may not move at all and there are rates that may move opposite to what the Fed has done.
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It's not good. It's a huge step back for the Fed. It's not the direction where the Fed wants to go. It's unsettling.
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Everybody knows what the Fed is doing, but no one knows which move is going to impact the market. I call it a version of Federal Reserve water torture: a drop at a time and after a while it will drive you absolutely batty.
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It's a surprise. Certainly the Fed is worried about inflation, but it has been subdued in recent months, so I wouldn't be too concerned about that.
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It means we sort of dodged another bullet on the inflation front. These kinds of numbers put the Federal Reserve in a difficult box. We don't have inflation, the economy is growing too fast, they are afraid it won't keep up, but it's hard for them to raise rates without any inflation on the doorstep.
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We've still got a lot of job growth, but it's not pressuring the unemployment rate, ... That's a critical thing for the Fed -- between the unemployment rate and the nice average hourly earnings rate figure, which was up only a penny, I think the Federal Reserve will breathe pretty easily with this report.