Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
challenger continue impressed labor market rebound report sudden waters weakness
This really muddies the waters on jobs, ... I continue to see a lot of labor market distress, and I am more impressed by the sudden weakness in the Challenger report than by the rebound in the cantankerous ISM.
continue determine economy fast federal grow limit officials reserve saying speed
We continue to see Federal Reserve officials saying they want the economy to grow as fast as it can, but they're the ones who determine where that speed limit is.
concerns continues evidence fears inflation
While concerns about inflation swirl, the evidence continues to give those fears little substance,
ahead continued data face fed hike marginal market rates sees turning
This is what the market did in 1974, ahead of a slowdown in 1975, and the Fed continued to hike rates in the face of marginal data turning worse, ... I don't see where the Fed sees 'traction'.
people
This refunding went really poorly. People still have nagging concerns,
cut fed hold might quite rate shows suggest work
This shows the Fed rate cut was really quite needed, ... and would probably suggest the Fed might have more work to do to hold things together.
blow employment factor gain lose warm weather
When you get abnormally warm weather, the seasonal factor will blow this up into a big gain. Once we lose this weather effect, we'll see how much of an employment gain we get.
jobs knew loaded
We knew jobs were front-end loaded because of the weather. Even so, this is dramatic.
again black concern friday great holiday miserable sales shopping ticked week
To me, the concern right now is that holiday shopping has been spotty . We had a great Black Friday , the week after that was miserable and then sales ticked up again after that,
coming fallen financial markets
The problem, ... is that the markets have fallen sharply and they've fallen because all these financial shenanigans are coming unraveled.
fed move opposite rates
There are rates that may not move at all and there are rates that may move opposite to what the Fed has done.
cause faster hiring
Those two things could come into collision, and cause you to get faster hiring in the first part of the year, then have it catches up with you later,
attractive begins bond capital circle finds flow fully growth home instead looks markets money overseas push recover rest slow starts stock valued vicious wonderful yields
As the rest of the world begins to recover and capital finds a better home overseas because U.S. bond yields don't look attractive and the U.S. stock markets looks like it fully valued or overvalued, ... (then) money doesn't flow here. And when money doesn't flow here, it starts to push bond yields up, and that starts to slow our growth and make the stock market look worse, and you start to get into this vicious circle instead of this wonderful circle you're in now.
bad case happen
You can make the case that bad things happen in October.