Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
economy economy-and-economics federal reserve soft spot talked
The Federal Reserve has talked about the economy being in a soft spot -- well, it's really in a soft spot.
consumer overall spending temper
The consumer still has life. It does temper the overall gain, but we're still going to see the consumer spending this quarter.
consumers fine future worried
Consumers are conflicted. They feel fine for now, but they are worried about the future.
consumer control prices
consumer prices are really going to be under control, as well.
compensate energy eventually fact itself month period prices work works
Eventually you have other prices going down to compensate for the fact that energy went up. But that doesn't work itself out in a month or two; it works out over a period of time.
bad companies disturbing glorified indication move order orders overall percentage points running shows tend
We tend to look at this and the Philadelphia index as an indication of what is going on in the overall economy. Most disturbing is that order backlogs are running over 50 percent, which is the glorified neutral. It's at 6 percentage points below, that's bad -- it shows companies are cannibalizing orders to move ahead.
bad case happen
You can make the case that bad things happen in October.
attractive begins bond capital circle finds flow fully growth home instead looks markets money overseas push recover rest slow starts stock valued vicious wonderful yields
As the rest of the world begins to recover and capital finds a better home overseas because U.S. bond yields don't look attractive and the U.S. stock markets looks like it fully valued or overvalued, ... (then) money doesn't flow here. And when money doesn't flow here, it starts to push bond yields up, and that starts to slow our growth and make the stock market look worse, and you start to get into this vicious circle instead of this wonderful circle you're in now.
cards dates fed forces issues key sort
Credibility is a key here. The Fed can't go out hammering away at some of these issues and then say, 'Oh, never mind,' when one of the key dates comes. So I think that's something else that sort of forces the Fed to put its cards on the table.
cause faster hiring
Those two things could come into collision, and cause you to get faster hiring in the first part of the year, then have it catches up with you later,
growth seen strong
What's going on here is we've got a lot of growth. We've seen very, very strong consumption.
consumer disaster extra growth hurricane income period recent recovering spending true
During this recent period there may be some extra spending on the part of those recovering from hurricane disasters. But it is also true that comprehensive consumer spending has been outstripping income growth over this period,
chairman fed fire trial
Each Fed Chairman has to go through his own, on-the-job, trial by fire. There is no other way.
built components main order orders particular picture showing
A lot of the main components are still showing weakness. We still have orders declining, and order backlogs haven't built up to any particular degree. This is the picture of a still-weak manufacturing sector.