Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
people
This refunding went really poorly. People still have nagging concerns,
challenger continue impressed labor market rebound report sudden waters weakness
This really muddies the waters on jobs, ... I continue to see a lot of labor market distress, and I am more impressed by the sudden weakness in the Challenger report than by the rebound in the cantankerous ISM.
cut fed hold might quite rate shows suggest work
This shows the Fed rate cut was really quite needed, ... and would probably suggest the Fed might have more work to do to hold things together.
blow employment factor gain lose warm weather
When you get abnormally warm weather, the seasonal factor will blow this up into a big gain. Once we lose this weather effect, we'll see how much of an employment gain we get.
cause faster hiring
Those two things could come into collision, and cause you to get faster hiring in the first part of the year, then have it catches up with you later,
jobs knew loaded
We knew jobs were front-end loaded because of the weather. Even so, this is dramatic.
again black concern friday great holiday miserable sales shopping ticked week
To me, the concern right now is that holiday shopping has been spotty . We had a great Black Friday , the week after that was miserable and then sales ticked up again after that,
bad case happen
You can make the case that bad things happen in October.
high jobs numbers pump rate
We can't pump out jobs at the rate of 300,000 a month. Numbers as high as even 200,000 a month, they're even too much.
bad basis coming housing market numbers strong
We are coming off strong numbers, and I don't think we would want to say bad things about the housing market on the basis of these numbers alone.
coming fallen financial markets
The problem, ... is that the markets have fallen sharply and they've fallen because all these financial shenanigans are coming unraveled.
fed move opposite rates
There are rates that may not move at all and there are rates that may move opposite to what the Fed has done.
above average bad divides good job line market months normal performance recent recessions three
Two of the three recent months are above the midpoint line that divides the average layoff performance in recessions from normal layoff periods. This suggests the job market is getting to be more like it is in bad times than in good times,
clearly dead forces global inflation keeping powerful string trying
It's not that I think inflation will be dead forever, but there are very powerful global forces keeping it low. The bond-market vigilantes are clearly trying to string up the innocent.