Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
markets radar reason recession stock talk
There is a reason for stock markets to be worried. But I don't think we need to talk about recession yet -- it's not on the radar screen.
cheering consumer digging economists makers odd ourselves people policy reasons saving spending
I find it just odd for all these economists and policy makers to be cheering for all this consumer spending when we're just digging ourselves into a hole. With all the obligations we have ahead, to retirees and to ourselves, we have all the reasons in the world for people to be saving more and be controlling their spending.
against maybe reason suggesting
We have a lot of things suggesting that maybe things have improved, ... I don't see any reason to go against the numbers.
across areas broad concerned core declines fed growth inflation percent prices reason spectrum
Inflation decelerated across a broad spectrum of core CPI areas -- about 40 percent of prices in the core showed declines in their year-over-year growth rate. That's a big proportion. The Fed is concerned and has a reason to be concerned.
bigger deficit forecast foreign growth lower oil prices reasons relatively seems trade weak
The trade deficit seems to only get bigger and never recede. The reasons are clear, oil prices are up, foreign growth is still relatively weak and US growth is strong. There is no reason to forecast a lower deficit.
people
This refunding went really poorly. People still have nagging concerns,
challenger continue impressed labor market rebound report sudden waters weakness
This really muddies the waters on jobs, ... I continue to see a lot of labor market distress, and I am more impressed by the sudden weakness in the Challenger report than by the rebound in the cantankerous ISM.
cut fed hold might quite rate shows suggest work
This shows the Fed rate cut was really quite needed, ... and would probably suggest the Fed might have more work to do to hold things together.
blow employment factor gain lose warm weather
When you get abnormally warm weather, the seasonal factor will blow this up into a big gain. Once we lose this weather effect, we'll see how much of an employment gain we get.
jobs knew loaded
We knew jobs were front-end loaded because of the weather. Even so, this is dramatic.
again black concern friday great holiday miserable sales shopping ticked week
To me, the concern right now is that holiday shopping has been spotty . We had a great Black Friday , the week after that was miserable and then sales ticked up again after that,
coming fallen financial markets
The problem, ... is that the markets have fallen sharply and they've fallen because all these financial shenanigans are coming unraveled.
fed move opposite rates
There are rates that may not move at all and there are rates that may move opposite to what the Fed has done.
cause faster hiring
Those two things could come into collision, and cause you to get faster hiring in the first part of the year, then have it catches up with you later,