Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
markets radar reason recession stock talk
There is a reason for stock markets to be worried. But I don't think we need to talk about recession yet -- it's not on the radar screen.
against maybe reason suggesting
We have a lot of things suggesting that maybe things have improved, ... I don't see any reason to go against the numbers.
across areas broad concerned core declines fed growth inflation percent prices reason spectrum
Inflation decelerated across a broad spectrum of core CPI areas -- about 40 percent of prices in the core showed declines in their year-over-year growth rate. That's a big proportion. The Fed is concerned and has a reason to be concerned.
bigger deficit forecast foreign growth lower oil prices reasons relatively seems trade weak
The trade deficit seems to only get bigger and never recede. The reasons are clear, oil prices are up, foreign growth is still relatively weak and US growth is strong. There is no reason to forecast a lower deficit.
cheering consumer digging economists makers odd ourselves people policy reasons saving spending
I find it just odd for all these economists and policy makers to be cheering for all this consumer spending when we're just digging ourselves into a hole. With all the obligations we have ahead, to retirees and to ourselves, we have all the reasons in the world for people to be saving more and be controlling their spending.
economy-and-economics happening mixed results
We're getting sort-of mixed results with what is happening in the economy.
categories clearly consumers divided good lots main money optimism results shown spending
We're getting some very good spending going into the first quarter. It's interesting that while there is spending optimism, consumers are still clearly divided into two main categories -- those with lots of money and those that are hurting. That's why these monthly results have shown so much irregularity.
begin creates creep demand employees evidence fed gains generally inflation quite realize scenario starting wage worker
Worker productivity generally creates a scenario where employees realize they can begin to demand more for what they do. While the year-over-year productivity gains are still quite good, there is some evidence that wage inflation may be starting to creep in. The Fed won't like this.
cuts job seeing stay
We're still seeing job cuts in manufacturing, and it's going to stay that way for some time.
aggressive banks curtail economic extent feeds less risk taking
The extent to which it feeds back to you and me is that banks become less aggressive about taking risk ... and this could curtail economic activity.
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We've still got a lot of job growth, but it's not pressuring the unemployment rate, ... That's a critical thing for the Fed -- between the unemployment rate and the nice average hourly earnings rate figure, which was up only a penny, I think the Federal Reserve will breathe pretty easily with this report.
economy problems strong
I still have my problems with the economy and how strong it's doing,
affected economy economy-and-economics gives magnitude
It doesn't tell you anything about the economy at this point. It just gives you some idea of the magnitude of the displacement in the affected area.
begun behind economy economy-and-economics growth job pushed signs slow strong surface
I think some of the job growth has been pushed forward. Behind the surface of these very strong reports, there are signs the economy has begun to slow down.