Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
categories clearly consumers divided good lots main money optimism results shown spending
We're getting some very good spending going into the first quarter. It's interesting that while there is spending optimism, consumers are still clearly divided into two main categories -- those with lots of money and those that are hurting. That's why these monthly results have shown so much irregularity.
built components main order orders particular picture showing
A lot of the main components are still showing weakness. We still have orders declining, and order backlogs haven't built up to any particular degree. This is the picture of a still-weak manufacturing sector.
people
This refunding went really poorly. People still have nagging concerns,
challenger continue impressed labor market rebound report sudden waters weakness
This really muddies the waters on jobs, ... I continue to see a lot of labor market distress, and I am more impressed by the sudden weakness in the Challenger report than by the rebound in the cantankerous ISM.
cut fed hold might quite rate shows suggest work
This shows the Fed rate cut was really quite needed, ... and would probably suggest the Fed might have more work to do to hold things together.
blow employment factor gain lose warm weather
When you get abnormally warm weather, the seasonal factor will blow this up into a big gain. Once we lose this weather effect, we'll see how much of an employment gain we get.
jobs knew loaded
We knew jobs were front-end loaded because of the weather. Even so, this is dramatic.
again black concern friday great holiday miserable sales shopping ticked week
To me, the concern right now is that holiday shopping has been spotty . We had a great Black Friday , the week after that was miserable and then sales ticked up again after that,
coming fallen financial markets
The problem, ... is that the markets have fallen sharply and they've fallen because all these financial shenanigans are coming unraveled.
fed move opposite rates
There are rates that may not move at all and there are rates that may move opposite to what the Fed has done.
cause faster hiring
Those two things could come into collision, and cause you to get faster hiring in the first part of the year, then have it catches up with you later,
attractive begins bond capital circle finds flow fully growth home instead looks markets money overseas push recover rest slow starts stock valued vicious wonderful yields
As the rest of the world begins to recover and capital finds a better home overseas because U.S. bond yields don't look attractive and the U.S. stock markets looks like it fully valued or overvalued, ... (then) money doesn't flow here. And when money doesn't flow here, it starts to push bond yields up, and that starts to slow our growth and make the stock market look worse, and you start to get into this vicious circle instead of this wonderful circle you're in now.
bad case happen
You can make the case that bad things happen in October.
above average bad divides good job line market months normal performance recent recessions three
Two of the three recent months are above the midpoint line that divides the average layoff performance in recessions from normal layoff periods. This suggests the job market is getting to be more like it is in bad times than in good times,