Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
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What's going on here is we've got a lot of growth. We've seen very, very strong consumption.
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I still have my problems with the economy and how strong it's doing,
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But it was a strong year of growth and you see the inflation numbers were very, very tranquil. If anything, bonds are going to focus on inflation so we should be seeing a good bond market reaction to this.
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We are coming off strong numbers, and I don't think we would want to say bad things about the housing market on the basis of these numbers alone.
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Back before the recession, we had strong job growth and no inflation. There's fuzzy thinking going on here -- I thought we'd broken the old idea that strong growth is bad. As long as productivity growth can remain high, fast job growth is not a problem.
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I think some of the job growth has been pushed forward. Behind the surface of these very strong reports, there are signs the economy has begun to slow down.
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Housing may get another mini boost from the recent drop in rates. These data do lag a bit. Still, it is clear that, low rates or not, housing is not on fire the way it once was. The level of activity remains quite high for housing. But the prospects for further growth do not look that strong based on momentum.
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The stock market is earnings-oriented. But if you're looking at earnings, you're not seeing anything improving.
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The sell-off in bonds is for real and is the correct reaction. The Fed will need confirmation to act. The bond market won't. It takes no prisoners.
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The soft spot is looking to be bigger and softer all the time.
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The rise, however, does not mean that housing is out of the woods -- far from it. The Fed is still hiking.
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During this recent period there may be some extra spending on the part of those recovering from hurricane disasters. But it is also true that comprehensive consumer spending has been outstripping income growth over this period,
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Each Fed Chairman has to go through his own, on-the-job, trial by fire. There is no other way.
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Prices don't decline like this unless you've got a lot of slack demand conditions.