Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
markets radar reason recession stock talk
There is a reason for stock markets to be worried. But I don't think we need to talk about recession yet -- it's not on the radar screen.
affect consumer effect kinds lost money people seem stock wealth
Where was wealth effect during that time? ... The consumer didn't die. People lost all kinds of money in the stock market, and it didn't seem to affect them.
attractive begins bond capital circle finds flow fully growth home instead looks markets money overseas push recover rest slow starts stock valued vicious wonderful yields
As the rest of the world begins to recover and capital finds a better home overseas because U.S. bond yields don't look attractive and the U.S. stock markets looks like it fully valued or overvalued, ... (then) money doesn't flow here. And when money doesn't flow here, it starts to push bond yields up, and that starts to slow our growth and make the stock market look worse, and you start to get into this vicious circle instead of this wonderful circle you're in now.
looking market seeing stock
The stock market is earnings-oriented. But if you're looking at earnings, you're not seeing anything improving.
economy-and-economics happening mixed results
We're getting sort-of mixed results with what is happening in the economy.
categories clearly consumers divided good lots main money optimism results shown spending
We're getting some very good spending going into the first quarter. It's interesting that while there is spending optimism, consumers are still clearly divided into two main categories -- those with lots of money and those that are hurting. That's why these monthly results have shown so much irregularity.
begin creates creep demand employees evidence fed gains generally inflation quite realize scenario starting wage worker
Worker productivity generally creates a scenario where employees realize they can begin to demand more for what they do. While the year-over-year productivity gains are still quite good, there is some evidence that wage inflation may be starting to creep in. The Fed won't like this.
cuts job seeing stay
We're still seeing job cuts in manufacturing, and it's going to stay that way for some time.
aggressive banks curtail economic extent feeds less risk taking
The extent to which it feeds back to you and me is that banks become less aggressive about taking risk ... and this could curtail economic activity.
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We've still got a lot of job growth, but it's not pressuring the unemployment rate, ... That's a critical thing for the Fed -- between the unemployment rate and the nice average hourly earnings rate figure, which was up only a penny, I think the Federal Reserve will breathe pretty easily with this report.
economy problems strong
I still have my problems with the economy and how strong it's doing,
affected economy economy-and-economics gives magnitude
It doesn't tell you anything about the economy at this point. It just gives you some idea of the magnitude of the displacement in the affected area.
begun behind economy economy-and-economics growth job pushed signs slow strong surface
I think some of the job growth has been pushed forward. Behind the surface of these very strong reports, there are signs the economy has begun to slow down.
bear building economy fruit head improvement job less market pointing report signals simply
Some of the signals pointing to job market improvement simply did not bear fruit this month. The report makes the economy look even less like it is building a head of steam.