Phil Dow
Phil Dow
additional coming concerned downside economic gradual primarily time
With today's big decline, this isn't a time to be concerned about additional downside but about what can go right in the coming months, primarily a gradual economic recovery,
advantage associates attractive coming computer estimates forward great growing multiple obvious percent research software third trades trying value
We're trying to take advantage of value where we can see it, and there are some obvious places. Computer Associates ( CA : Research , Estimates ) is the third-largest independent software company. It trades at a P/E multiple on forward earnings. It's about a third of Microsoft's today. It's growing at about 16, 17 percent, trades for about 13 times earnings. We think it's a very attractive asset. We think it's a great one and could go up as much as 30, 40 percent in the coming year.
coming environment lead months six three tough
Guidant may see three to six months of tough competitive environment with competitors coming out with innovation, but after that we think they're going to really lead the marketplace with innovation,
capture driving groups guess headed leading market maybe percent represents technology
Right now, technology represents about 24 percent of the capitalization of the S&P, ... My guess is we're headed up to maybe the 20s or maybe 30 percent. If you look back historically, leading groups can capture that much of the market and I think technology's driving the market right now.
caused coast economy focus following gulf major rebuilding resilient since
Rebuilding in the Gulf Coast will be a major focus following the destruction caused by hurricanes in the region. This is yet another demonstration of how resilient the economy has been since Sept. 11, 2001.
immediate looking safe
I think if you're looking for immediate gratification, there's probably no place that's real safe to buy,
folks names
I think most folks are under-diversified, and I'd like to see more names in a portfolio,
ahead believes expand holding market news seems volume
I think we are in a recovery, but no one ever believes it ahead of time. To me, it's pretty encouraging to see volume expand when the market is going up. And while the news is not improving, the market seems to be holding up.
america corporate drive earnings economy eventually financial focus general good guide half high home last lower main market people period productive rather second showing stocks time trade unique wears year
I think a productive economy is the main thing people should take home with them. This is a unique period in American history. I think we'll look back on it as a time you wanted to own stocks rather than trade stocks. I think, secondarily, corporate America is showing good earnings reports. The second half of this year may be lower than the second half of last year, but they're still robust, probably in the high teens. I think if you focus on financial guide posts, that eventually will drive prices. I think you'll see the market in general do better as the year wears on.
close depressive economy emotional guess manic point seen wash
I think it's still emotional and we've seen a manic depressive market. It has very little to do with the economy and my guess is it will wash out at some point ? I think we're getting close here.
chase investors japan markets reason saw
It's frightening if you chase performance. One reason why investors went into Japan is that they saw the markets perked up there.
amazing capital profits turn
It's amazing to see intellectual capital turn into profits so quickly.
cautious community economy growth history negatively people percent recent surprised trading translated viewed wall year
This year I was a little surprised (at) how negatively people viewed the economy and that's translated into a very cautious trading community on Wall Street, ... I think we did pretty well. We had a 4.4 percent growth in GDP. That's better than in recent history and better than some of our trading partners.
bit doubt economic longer market mosaic pieces seeing short stock support sustained term together
Bit by bit we are seeing the pieces of the economic mosaic come together that could support a sustained stock market rally, at least in the short term ... But in the longer term, there are still significant questions, no doubt about it.