Phil Dow
Phil Dow
cautious community economy growth history negatively people percent recent surprised trading translated viewed wall year
This year I was a little surprised (at) how negatively people viewed the economy and that's translated into a very cautious trading community on Wall Street, ... I think we did pretty well. We had a 4.4 percent growth in GDP. That's better than in recent history and better than some of our trading partners.
advantage associates attractive coming computer estimates forward great growing multiple obvious percent research software third trades trying value
We're trying to take advantage of value where we can see it, and there are some obvious places. Computer Associates ( CA : Research , Estimates ) is the third-largest independent software company. It trades at a P/E multiple on forward earnings. It's about a third of Microsoft's today. It's growing at about 16, 17 percent, trades for about 13 times earnings. We think it's a very attractive asset. We think it's a great one and could go up as much as 30, 40 percent in the coming year.
capture driving groups guess headed leading market maybe percent represents technology
Right now, technology represents about 24 percent of the capitalization of the S&P, ... My guess is we're headed up to maybe the 20s or maybe 30 percent. If you look back historically, leading groups can capture that much of the market and I think technology's driving the market right now.
basically equal last percent portfolio run three track versus year
If you look at our portfolio that we run here with a three-year track record, basically it's equal to the S&P the last three years. This year we're down about 1.8, 1.9 percent versus an S&P that's significantly more than that down.
companies people rest sector software spending tech thinking waiting
These software warnings have got people thinking that companies aren't spending their wads of cash. There may have been some unrealistic expectations, so I'm waiting to see how the rest of the tech sector does.
balance company equipment financial firm great throw waters
We like Waters Corporation, ... It's a company that specializes in equipment for biotech research, great balance sheet, firm fundamentals. In financials, we would throw in Wells Fargo, TCF Financial Corporation, and Citigroup.
bit doubt economic longer market mosaic pieces seeing short stock support sustained term together
Bit by bit we are seeing the pieces of the economic mosaic come together that could support a sustained stock market rally, at least in the short term ... But in the longer term, there are still significant questions, no doubt about it.
clearly great leader shot
We think Nokia is clearly going to be the leader in handsets, ... And we think they've got a great shot at infrastructure as well.
activity investors negative news traders trading
The trading activity has a negative bias. The news has been negative and it's frustrating for investors and traders alike.
immediate looking safe
I think if you're looking for immediate gratification, there's probably no place that's real safe to buy,
folks names
I think most folks are under-diversified, and I'd like to see more names in a portfolio,
months several turnaround
We've got to get through that and it's probably several months before we get a turnaround in any sectors,
cash compelling flow quite standpoint stock value
From a cash flow standpoint and a value standpoint, the stock is quite attractive, ... I think those are all compelling arguments for long-term ownership.
gradually historical moves series shock terrible
If we have a series of big moves up, that would be a shock to the system, ... but, considering where are from a historical perspective, they could go up more gradually and not be a terrible headwind for the market.