Phil Dow
Phil Dow
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We're at the tenderloin of the earnings season and you are going to see powerful earnings reports from a lot of companies this week, and I think while we have got economic reports, earnings are going to be the focal point of the market right now, ... I think one feature that we've not talked a lot about is just the sentiment on the part of professional money managers. They have had to be kind of tentative the past two or three months with the Fed hiking. My guess is the one move they can't miss is a big up move here, and I think you could have a train-leaving-the-station kind of rally as institutions come into this marketplace.
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wants to cut taxes and spend the surplus.
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These software warnings have got people thinking that companies aren't spending their wads of cash. There may have been some unrealistic expectations, so I'm waiting to see how the rest of the tech sector does.
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Hopefully we'll see the economy slowing down by the summer and technology will take off.
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If you don't believe America is going to grow and recover from this, obviously you should sell, ... My guess is it's going to accelerate our recovery.
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If you have any kind of cut or a neutral bias, the markets will move higher.
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If you look at the earnings so far, we've had on balance in-line or mildly positive surprises. Yet the guidance going forward had been guarded. If that continues, you're looking at a more subdued market response this week.
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If you look at our portfolio that we run here with a three-year track record, basically it's equal to the S&P the last three years. This year we're down about 1.8, 1.9 percent versus an S&P that's significantly more than that down.
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But he (Fed chairman Alan Greenspan) also said they're still worried and they're not through tightening.
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It's amazing to see intellectual capital turn into profits so quickly.
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It's frightening if you chase performance. One reason why investors went into Japan is that they saw the markets perked up there.
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They have the best of breed kinds of companies in two really good industries. They have a natural gas pipeline company. In addition, a fiber optic network which will be 33,000 miles. Each have the wind at their back and we think the combined businesses conservatively are worth 60. Right now the stock trades for around 45. The company just announced a way to unlock that value with a spin-off of their Williams Communications Group. So we think it's just a matter of time before that stock reaches 60.
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There was just a tremendous amount of concern, and the market held, ... In fact if you look at third-quarter performance, it was pretty good across the board.
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This is the first evidence that things might be better than they thought, and I think traders don't quite know what to do. I think we've been conditioned to bad news -- it's like a beaten-up prize fighter. I think it's a dangerous time to look for more of the same, meaning looking for more negative.