Phil Dow
Phil Dow
guess value
My guess is that value will have its day,
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This year I was a little surprised (at) how negatively people viewed the economy and that's translated into a very cautious trading community on Wall Street, ... I think we did pretty well. We had a 4.4 percent growth in GDP. That's better than in recent history and better than some of our trading partners.
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This year, the market is trying to tell you to be selective. If you look at the stocks that have moved, it really has not been just 30 big stocks; it's been all asset classes, all styles -- value and growth have delivered. The ones that are really getting fundamental financial guide, post-traction are those that are delivering. So my guess is selectivity is the key, and I think you've got to be in kind of best-of-breed solutions right now.
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We're trying to take advantage of value where we can see it, and there are some obvious places. Computer Associates ( CA : Research , Estimates ) is the third-largest independent software company. It trades at a P/E multiple on forward earnings. It's about a third of Microsoft's today. It's growing at about 16, 17 percent, trades for about 13 times earnings. We think it's a very attractive asset. We think it's a great one and could go up as much as 30, 40 percent in the coming year.
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Try to buy those kinds of names when they're out of favor and hold on to them for long periods of time,
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It's frightening if you chase performance. One reason why investors went into Japan is that they saw the markets perked up there.
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It's amazing to see intellectual capital turn into profits so quickly.
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With today's big decline, this isn't a time to be concerned about additional downside but about what can go right in the coming months, primarily a gradual economic recovery,
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I think the main impact of the election has been a degree of uncertainty. Once we know who the president will be it will be very much like Y2K -- it will come and go. You have to focus on sales and earnings, and those have been pretty robust.
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We're at the tenderloin of the earnings season and you are going to see powerful earnings reports from a lot of companies this week, and I think while we have got economic reports, earnings are going to be the focal point of the market right now, ... I think one feature that we've not talked a lot about is just the sentiment on the part of professional money managers. They have had to be kind of tentative the past two or three months with the Fed hiking. My guess is the one move they can't miss is a big up move here, and I think you could have a train-leaving-the-station kind of rally as institutions come into this marketplace.
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wants to cut taxes and spend the surplus.
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They have the best of breed kinds of companies in two really good industries. They have a natural gas pipeline company. In addition, a fiber optic network which will be 33,000 miles. Each have the wind at their back and we think the combined businesses conservatively are worth 60. Right now the stock trades for around 45. The company just announced a way to unlock that value with a spin-off of their Williams Communications Group. So we think it's just a matter of time before that stock reaches 60.
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You're going to see a lot of companies voluntarily take the smoke and mirrors out of their business, ... We shouldn't expect to see an immediate recovery, but eventually people will regain confidence.
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There was just a tremendous amount of concern, and the market held, ... In fact if you look at third-quarter performance, it was pretty good across the board.