Phil Dow
Phil Dow
across amount fact good market tremendous
There was just a tremendous amount of concern, and the market held, ... In fact if you look at third-quarter performance, it was pretty good across the board.
bad dangerous evidence looking meaning might news prize quite time traders
This is the first evidence that things might be better than they thought, and I think traders don't quite know what to do. I think we've been conditioned to bad news -- it's like a beaten-up prize fighter. I think it's a dangerous time to look for more of the same, meaning looking for more negative.
positive
This could be one of the more important positive tailwinds for the market,
announced best breed businesses combined companies company fiber gas good kinds matter natural network pipeline reaches stock time trades unlock value williams wind worth
They have the best of breed kinds of companies in two really good industries. They have a natural gas pipeline company. In addition, a fiber optic network which will be 33,000 miles. Each have the wind at their back and we think the combined businesses conservatively are worth 60. Right now the stock trades for around 45. The company just announced a way to unlock that value with a spin-off of their Williams Communications Group. So we think it's just a matter of time before that stock reaches 60.
activity investors negative news traders trading
The trading activity has a negative bias. The news has been negative and it's frustrating for investors and traders alike.
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These software warnings have got people thinking that companies aren't spending their wads of cash. There may have been some unrealistic expectations, so I'm waiting to see how the rest of the tech sector does.
argue hard shock
Once we get over the shock of the headline, I find it hard to argue that this is a negative.
companies eventually expect immediate mirrors people regain smoke
You're going to see a lot of companies voluntarily take the smoke and mirrors out of their business, ... We shouldn't expect to see an immediate recovery, but eventually people will regain confidence.
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We're trying to take advantage of value where we can see it, and there are some obvious places. Computer Associates ( CA : Research , Estimates ) is the third-largest independent software company. It trades at a P/E multiple on forward earnings. It's about a third of Microsoft's today. It's growing at about 16, 17 percent, trades for about 13 times earnings. We think it's a very attractive asset. We think it's a great one and could go up as much as 30, 40 percent in the coming year.
balance business capital cash companies ensure levels record sheets spending stay surprise
One surprise in 2005 will be that business capital spending will be back in a big way especially as cash is at record levels on balance sheets and as companies ensure that they stay competitive.
guess value
My guess is that value will have its day,
buying expanding transition turned yesterday
My sense is that we may be at a really important transition point. Yesterday was a pretty important day. (The market) turned around on expanding volume, which indicated some real buying going on.
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My sense is that January is going to be critical this year and I think you can see a good beginning to the month. I think you can see a positive January and my guess is that's how you're going to see money invested -- early and strongly.
anticipate corporate earnings economic growth next people time year
Next year people will still be cautious. At the same time I anticipate corporate earnings and economic growth will come in better than expected,