Michael Woolfolk
Michael Woolfolk
country dollar fiscal formula growth happens investing investors loose monetary policy private report short strong tight
This report is nothing short of remarkable. The formula for a strong dollar is strong growth, tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy. The U.S. happens to have all three. Private investors are comfortable investing in a country like the U.S.
asian bank central continued demand elevated ensures foreign oil prices remains strong
We see that elevated oil prices and a continued Asian central bank intervention ensures that foreign demand for U.S. treasuries remains strong during January.
backing dollar economic economy likely rate strong
There are strong economic fundamentals backing not only the U.S. economy but the U.S. dollar right now. We are likely to get two more rate hikes.
building caused clothing december demand despite domestic figure fourth previous reflected retail sales strong supplies support
Despite some base-effect distortions caused by surges in building supplies and clothing sales in the previous month, December retail sales reflected broad-based domestic demand that should support a strong GDP figure for the fourth quarter.
above argue conditions dollar federal funds growth later rate strong target tight viewed
Strong growth and tight labor-market conditions argue for preemptive tightening that could very well take the federal funds target rate above 5% later this year. This is viewed as a dollar positive.
ability deficit given indication market rally strong strongly trade
The US dollar's ability to rally strongly off a better-than-expected trade deficit is a strong indication that the market hasn't yet given up on the dollar.
ability deficit given indication market rally strongly trade
The U.S. dollar's ability to rally strongly off a better-than-expected trade deficit is a strong indication that the market hasn't yet given up on the dollar.
buyers curve domestic foreign investors reason recession time yield
The reason why an inverted yield curve need not foreshadow recession this time is that it is foreign investors and not domestic investors who are increasingly buyers of U.S. bonds.
exceeded knew september turn worst
We knew that there were going to be some hurricane-related distortions in the September data, but this really exceeded our worst fears. This was a turn for the worst.
albeit economic positive report tip week
This was undeniably a positive report. Today's report could very well tip off a strong, albeit short, week for U.S. economic data.
benign canadian dollar inflation
Benign inflation has weakened the Canadian dollar a little bit.
dollar fed home increase interest less likely sales trend
Were this trend in new home sales to continue, the Fed will be less likely to increase interest rates, which would be a dollar negative.
china continue currency deficit energy enthusiasm firmly further improvement lasting market prices remains resistant rise trade unexpected
While the US trade deficit showed an unexpected improvement in February, any lasting market enthusiasm was firmly misplaced. Energy prices continue to rise while China remains resistant to further currency flexibility.
aggregate data december itself negative rude total
While the monthly December data was not itself a negative surprise, the aggregate 2005 total was a rude reminder.