Michael Woolfolk
Michael Woolfolk
auto loss market reflect rest saying surprise
(The survey) was a big surprise this morning, but some of the market is saying that Detroit, because of loss of auto jobs, does not reflect the rest of the nation.
choke growth oil prevent prices recovery risen stock view
Oil prices have risen so dramatically that the view now is that this could choke off U.S. growth and prevent any recovery in the stock market.
continue economic expected fed heads interest political rates report rising risk strength underlying
The monthly GDP report fed into underlying CAD strength. With political risk subsiding, rising interest rates and fundamental economic strength are prompting CAD buying, which is expected to continue through year-end as USD/CAD heads for the 1.10 mark.
building caused clothing december demand despite domestic figure fourth previous reflected retail sales strong supplies support
Despite some base-effect distortions caused by surges in building supplies and clothing sales in the previous month, December retail sales reflected broad-based domestic demand that should support a strong GDP figure for the fourth quarter.
against events
We would have to say there is a confluence of events conspiring against the dollar.
dollar fed markets trend until
We won't see the dollar embarking on any new trend until the markets get a better sense of where the Fed is headed.
asian bank central continued demand elevated ensures foreign oil prices remains strong
We see that elevated oil prices and a continued Asian central bank intervention ensures that foreign demand for U.S. treasuries remains strong during January.
dollar fed home increase interest less likely sales trend
Were this trend in new home sales to continue, the Fed will be less likely to increase interest rates, which would be a dollar negative.
exceeded knew september turn worst
We knew that there were going to be some hurricane-related distortions in the September data, but this really exceeded our worst fears. This was a turn for the worst.
country dollar fiscal formula growth happens investing investors loose monetary policy private report short strong tight
This report is nothing short of remarkable. The formula for a strong dollar is strong growth, tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy. The U.S. happens to have all three. Private investors are comfortable investing in a country like the U.S.
buyers curve domestic foreign investors reason recession time yield
The reason why an inverted yield curve need not foreshadow recession this time is that it is foreign investors and not domestic investors who are increasingly buyers of U.S. bonds.
below compelling concerned drifted further hike interest levels next rates reason start
Unemployment has drifted further below 5 percent, and at those levels you have to start being concerned about bidding up of wages. There's a compelling reason to hike interest rates at the next meeting.
both deep iran liquid markets money possible states sums united
I don't think it is possible for Iran to take money out of both the United States and Europe. There are just not sufficiently deep or liquid markets to place these sums of money.
durable favorable gains given goods growth interest january market positive rate recent unlikely weigh
Given the recent spate of positive January data, CPI and durable goods are unlikely to disappoint. The USD is positioned to make new gains ... as favorable U.S. growth and interest rate differentials weigh on market sentiment.