Michael Woolfolk
Michael Woolfolk
market tape
But the tape will not be as important to the market as new data.
above capacity fed further given high increases last later levels low march raise rates recent release report
Given recent Fed warnings over high levels of capacity utilization and low levels of unemployment, today's report increases the probability that the Fed will raise rates above 5.0% later this year. Last Friday's release of March unemployment further buttresses this view.
backing dollar economic economy likely rate strong
There are strong economic fundamentals backing not only the U.S. economy but the U.S. dollar right now. We are likely to get two more rate hikes.
bank canadian continues dollar federal hike narrow rates reserve
If the Bank of Canadian continues to hike rates after the Federal Reserve pauses, it will narrow the rate differential between the two. This will make the Canadian dollar more favorable.
attempting investors positions square
Investors are attempting to square up their positions before the long weekend.
dollar fed interest looks provide rate supporting time until
Interest rate differentials are supporting the U.S. dollar for the time being. Until the Fed pauses, it looks that's going to provide support for dollar bulls.
continue dips fed indicate inflation likely raise wage
If unemployment dips any lower, that may indicate some wage inflation and the Fed will likely continue to raise rates.
against banks central continue dollar intervene overseas remain supported time weak
The dollar will remain supported for the time being so long as central banks overseas continue to intervene to keep their currencies weak against the U.S. dollar.
continued dollar importance interest labor market rally rate report respect
The dollar rally after the non-farm payrolls report underscores the continued importance of labor market tightness with respect to interest rate expectations.
door fed future hikes left open positive rate
The door will be left open for future rate hikes but the Fed will be increasingly data-dependent. That's positive for the U.S. dollar.
account action arguably cannot corrected current deficit grown point
The current account deficit has grown to a point where it arguably cannot be corrected by US action alone.
chance increased interest market mean meeting next percent rates took
The market took this to mean that there is a 100 percent chance that interest rates will be increased at the next meeting and a 75 percent chance at the meeting after that.
buy canadian economic happy investors market number shows strength willing
The market is happy with the number as it shows strength in Canada's economic growth. Investors are willing to buy the Canadian dollar.
continued fully globally hike hikes interest march positive rate talk
The hike in March is fully priced in. The hike in May is over 80% priced in. There is already talk of continued hikes after that. Interest rate differentials globally are increasingly favoring the U.S. and it's positive for the dollar.