Michael Woolfolk
Michael Woolfolk
caught data heavy market players week wrong
Market players don't want to be caught the wrong way here going into a very heavy data week in the U.S..
above capacity fed further given high increases last later levels low march raise rates recent release report
Given recent Fed warnings over high levels of capacity utilization and low levels of unemployment, today's report increases the probability that the Fed will raise rates above 5.0% later this year. Last Friday's release of March unemployment further buttresses this view.
both deep iran liquid markets money possible states sums united
I don't think it is possible for Iran to take money out of both the United States and Europe. There are just not sufficiently deep or liquid markets to place these sums of money.
durable favorable gains given goods growth interest january market positive rate recent unlikely weigh
Given the recent spate of positive January data, CPI and durable goods are unlikely to disappoint. The USD is positioned to make new gains ... as favorable U.S. growth and interest rate differentials weigh on market sentiment.
bank canadian continues dollar federal hike narrow rates reserve
If the Bank of Canadian continues to hike rates after the Federal Reserve pauses, it will narrow the rate differential between the two. This will make the Canadian dollar more favorable.
backing dollar economic economy likely rate strong
There are strong economic fundamentals backing not only the U.S. economy but the U.S. dollar right now. We are likely to get two more rate hikes.
account bush capable current cutting decline deficit destined unless
Unless the Bush administration is capable of cutting the current account deficit in half, the dollar's decline is destined to continue.
believe curve people recession signal wrong yield
The people who believe that the inversion of the yield curve is a signal of recession have it wrong this time.
change consistent data fed
Our Fed watchers say there's a consistent story that the Fed is one and done. Today's data doesn't change this story.
asian bonds conscious demand dollar greatest market policy remains soon threat time unlikely whereas
Whereas Asian demand for US bonds is unlikely to end any time soon as a conscious policy decision, the reversal of petrodollars from the US bond market remains the greatest threat to the dollar in 2006.
against events
We would have to say there is a confluence of events conspiring against the dollar.
dollar fed markets trend until
We won't see the dollar embarking on any new trend until the markets get a better sense of where the Fed is headed.
auto loss market reflect rest saying surprise
(The survey) was a big surprise this morning, but some of the market is saying that Detroit, because of loss of auto jobs, does not reflect the rest of the nation.
building caused clothing december demand despite domestic figure fourth previous reflected retail sales strong supplies support
Despite some base-effect distortions caused by surges in building supplies and clothing sales in the previous month, December retail sales reflected broad-based domestic demand that should support a strong GDP figure for the fourth quarter.