Michael Woolfolk
Michael Woolfolk
china continue currency deficit energy enthusiasm firmly further improvement lasting market prices remains resistant rise trade unexpected
While the US trade deficit showed an unexpected improvement in February, any lasting market enthusiasm was firmly misplaced. Energy prices continue to rise while China remains resistant to further currency flexibility.
aggregate data december itself negative rude total
While the monthly December data was not itself a negative surprise, the aggregate 2005 total was a rude reminder.
below compelling concerned drifted further hike interest levels next rates reason start
Unemployment has drifted further below 5 percent, and at those levels you have to start being concerned about bidding up of wages. There's a compelling reason to hike interest rates at the next meeting.
consumers dollar economy heading keeping next spending strength
Consumers are out there spending and keeping the economy alive. We see dollar strength heading into next year.
bank changing close fiscal japan march monetary movements policy year
The Bank of Japan is not going to be changing its monetary policy before the fiscal year end on March 31. As corporations close down their books, they don't want any pronounced movements in the dollar-yen rate.
ability deficit given indication market rally strong strongly trade
The US dollar's ability to rally strongly off a better-than-expected trade deficit is a strong indication that the market hasn't yet given up on the dollar.
ability deficit given indication market rally strongly trade
The U.S. dollar's ability to rally strongly off a better-than-expected trade deficit is a strong indication that the market hasn't yet given up on the dollar.
above argue conditions dollar federal funds growth later rate strong target tight viewed
Strong growth and tight labor-market conditions argue for preemptive tightening that could very well take the federal funds target rate above 5% later this year. This is viewed as a dollar positive.
added buy dollar dollars gasoline market order report
This was a report that was made to order for dollar bulls. The market was predisposed to buy dollars and the report added gasoline to the fire.
dollar order report
This was a report that was made to order for dollar bulls.
account bush capable current cutting decline deficit destined unless
Unless the Bush administration is capable of cutting the current account deficit in half, the dollar's decline is destined to continue.
asian bonds conscious demand dollar greatest market policy remains soon threat time unlikely whereas
Whereas Asian demand for US bonds is unlikely to end any time soon as a conscious policy decision, the reversal of petrodollars from the US bond market remains the greatest threat to the dollar in 2006.
against events
We would have to say there is a confluence of events conspiring against the dollar.
dollar fed markets trend until
We won't see the dollar embarking on any new trend until the markets get a better sense of where the Fed is headed.