Michael Woolfolk
Michael Woolfolk
effect high left watching
This has had a psychological effect on the markets. For those of us left in the office, we're just watching to see just how high the 10-year will go today.
country dollar fiscal formula growth happens investing investors loose monetary policy private report short strong tight
This report is nothing short of remarkable. The formula for a strong dollar is strong growth, tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy. The U.S. happens to have all three. Private investors are comfortable investing in a country like the U.S.
buyers curve domestic foreign investors reason recession time yield
The reason why an inverted yield curve need not foreshadow recession this time is that it is foreign investors and not domestic investors who are increasingly buyers of U.S. bonds.
exceeded knew september turn worst
We knew that there were going to be some hurricane-related distortions in the September data, but this really exceeded our worst fears. This was a turn for the worst.
albeit economic positive report tip week
This was undeniably a positive report. Today's report could very well tip off a strong, albeit short, week for U.S. economic data.
benign canadian dollar inflation
Benign inflation has weakened the Canadian dollar a little bit.
asian bank central continued demand elevated ensures foreign oil prices remains strong
We see that elevated oil prices and a continued Asian central bank intervention ensures that foreign demand for U.S. treasuries remains strong during January.
dollar fed home increase interest less likely sales trend
Were this trend in new home sales to continue, the Fed will be less likely to increase interest rates, which would be a dollar negative.
china continue currency deficit energy enthusiasm firmly further improvement lasting market prices remains resistant rise trade unexpected
While the US trade deficit showed an unexpected improvement in February, any lasting market enthusiasm was firmly misplaced. Energy prices continue to rise while China remains resistant to further currency flexibility.
aggregate data december itself negative rude total
While the monthly December data was not itself a negative surprise, the aggregate 2005 total was a rude reminder.
below compelling concerned drifted further hike interest levels next rates reason start
Unemployment has drifted further below 5 percent, and at those levels you have to start being concerned about bidding up of wages. There's a compelling reason to hike interest rates at the next meeting.
bond concerned decide forward market negative remove ultimately
What we are concerned about is that going forward they may decide to remove petrodollars and redirect them elsewhere. If they do, it is negative for the bond market and ultimately for the U.S. dollar.
market tape
But the tape will not be as important to the market as new data.
added buy dollar dollars gasoline market order report
This was a report that was made to order for dollar bulls. The market was predisposed to buy dollars and the report added gasoline to the fire.