Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldonis a former Australian rules footballer who played with Essendon in the Victorian Football League...
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My sense is we continue to see this correction over the next few weeks, but I think once we get through this period and some of the March data starts to come out, stocks will move higher.
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Historically, the three-month period before the Fed goes on hold in the rate hiking cycle, stocks have performed well and that carries on for the next 12 months,
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All three major tech stocks that reported after the bell yesterday beat estimates and raised guidance, and were certainly a positive shot in the arm for tech investors.
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The markets so far have been unable to build on yesterday's gains, and right now are being held hostage by the bond market. But we are seeing some strength in semiconductors, energy stocks and some of the metals companies.
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All in all, I think investors are trying to put on a positive face and push stocks higher into the year-end. I think the market is going to try to build on yesterday's modest gains.
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We're seeing a continuation of the trends that were generally in place through much of the first quarter. We continue to see a number of uncertainties below the surface, but investors have mostly focused on the positives.
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Looking into the second quarter, what could move us higher is a decline in oil prices, lower bond yields, solid economic data that is non inflationary and stronger growth on the earnings front.
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Looking ahead to next week, the more important question for investors will be: 'Will the market experience a holiday hangover as investors take profits?'.
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Looking ahead to 2005, we are moderately optimistic and are looking for a stronger performance in the first half of the year followed by some weakness in the second half of the year.
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Markets are in a trading range right now, consolidating gains after the last few months. A lot of investors were looking to this week's data as a way to break out of the range, but what we've seen has left enough doubt in the minds of the bulls that we aren't likely to break out of this range in the next few sessions.
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I think the results from AMD and Apple after the close should help boost sentiment toward technology stocks, which have been on a bit of a roll for a few weeks,
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When the central bank came out and said they're going to drain liquidity over a period of months, that was a catalyst for investors who have avoided the stock market to put some money back in.
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Over the next few trading sessions, it will be important to watch whether the stock market sells off on rising volume. If that should happen, that could mean a spring correction is on the way.
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I think that next week, and in fact for the next few weeks, the markets are likely to remain in a trading range, with many of the same issues still in place.