Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldonis a former Australian rules footballer who played with Essendon in the Victorian Football League...
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I think the results from AMD and Apple after the close should help boost sentiment toward technology stocks, which have been on a bit of a roll for a few weeks,
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Looking into the second quarter, what could move us higher is a decline in oil prices, lower bond yields, solid economic data that is non inflationary and stronger growth on the earnings front.
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Looking ahead to next week, the more important question for investors will be: 'Will the market experience a holiday hangover as investors take profits?'.
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Looking ahead to 2005, we are moderately optimistic and are looking for a stronger performance in the first half of the year followed by some weakness in the second half of the year.
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Markets are in a trading range right now, consolidating gains after the last few months. A lot of investors were looking to this week's data as a way to break out of the range, but what we've seen has left enough doubt in the minds of the bulls that we aren't likely to break out of this range in the next few sessions.
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Over the next few trading sessions, it will be important to watch whether the stock market sells off on rising volume. If that should happen, that could mean a spring correction is on the way.
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I think the last few weeks have probably been frustrating for investors. Earnings have been very positive, but the focus has been on interest rates. Over the next few sessions, it looks like the fear of higher interest rates will probably outweigh the earnings.
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I think the number is likely to be below the median estimate.
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I think the fact that Greenspan brought the issue of a declining dollar, global trade imbalances and protectionism to the forefront adds to the pressure today.
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Given that tech companies are already trading at pretty high valuations, these companies' earnings are going to have to really deliver for the stock prices to show a substantial reaction.
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Given the strong reports we've seen from many technology and industrial companies over the past several days, it's hard to make too much sense of today's GDP report.
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If we see signs that the economy is in fact slowing, and inflation remains contained, then the pause is a positive for stocks. But if we see tightness in the labor market, pressure in commodity markets, that could suggest we will see further hikes.
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Historically, the three-month period before the Fed goes on hold in the rate hiking cycle, stocks have performed well and that carries on for the next 12 months,
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The rally the past few days shows investors are willing to look past this period of uncertainty toward a pickup in growth in early 2006. It's a pretty optimistic viewpoint and that could change when the data comes in.