Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldonis a former Australian rules footballer who played with Essendon in the Victorian Football League...
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Over the next few trading sessions, it will be important to watch whether the stock market sells off on rising volume. If that should happen, that could mean a spring correction is on the way.
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There's a major rise in oil prices, increased investor worry about the upcoming earnings season and you're also seeing some profit-taking after the market's six-week run-up.
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That's likely to remain the case until we start to resolve a few of the issues overhanging the markets include interest rates, energy prices and the strength of the economy over the next several months.
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This market is just extremely resilient, and if we don't get a major spike up in energy prices or interest rates from current levels, the strong earnings environment we find ourselves in could help carry the markets higher for several more weeks.
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Despite the Democratic National Convention, the biggest story of the week has been energy prices. That's prevented the market from seeing a bigger rally off these oversold conditions.
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Despite terrorist events around the world, rising oil prices and a lukewarm job market, consumer spending has remained fairly strong, much better than many would have thought. But if the economic data starts to slow and oil rises above $60 a barrel, that could eat into consumer spending.
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Oil prices in the morning would've been the biggest story, but by the close the market's incredible resilience is what investors are left with, ... It's a contrast to how the markets ended yesterday. I think so far higher oil prices have not had a major impact. There are a lot of positives driving the consumer and the stock market.
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The mood of the market has clearly improved in recent weeks and this most likely reflects optimism that the Fed is close to the end of its recent rate tightening cycle.
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I think the fact that Greenspan brought the issue of a declining dollar, global trade imbalances and protectionism to the forefront adds to the pressure today.
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I think that next week, and in fact for the next few weeks, the markets are likely to remain in a trading range, with many of the same issues still in place.
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I think the results from AMD and Apple after the close should help boost sentiment toward technology stocks, which have been on a bit of a roll for a few weeks,
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Just under 30 percent of the S&P 500 report results this week. Among the different industry groups, we'll get a heavy dose of economically sensitive names, including several from the oil and gas, rail, coal and steel industries.
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Historically, the three-month period before the Fed goes on hold in the rate hiking cycle, stocks have performed well and that carries on for the next 12 months,
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The rally the past few days shows investors are willing to look past this period of uncertainty toward a pickup in growth in early 2006. It's a pretty optimistic viewpoint and that could change when the data comes in.