Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldonis a former Australian rules footballer who played with Essendon in the Victorian Football League...
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With the Dow and Nasdaq having moved up the way they have, it's only normal to see a bit of a pullback from time to time. But you still have a lot of seasonal factors to come into play. November through January has historically been great for stocks, and I think it will be almost a self-fulfilling prophecy as investors start trickling back into the market.
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When all was said and done, the market showed its resilience once again, ... The market performed well despite today's extremely weak consumer sentiment number. Investors seem to be looking over a softer economy for the next few months towards a stronger economy to start 2006.
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Despite terrorist events around the world, rising oil prices and a lukewarm job market, consumer spending has remained fairly strong, much better than many would have thought. But if the economic data starts to slow and oil rises above $60 a barrel, that could eat into consumer spending.
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That's likely to remain the case until we start to resolve a few of the issues overhanging the markets include interest rates, energy prices and the strength of the economy over the next several months.
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So far, we haven't seen a major increase in core inflation, all we've seen is a sharp rise in energy prices. It seems logical that higher energy prices should start to feed through to higher inflation.
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My sense is we continue to see this correction over the next few weeks, but I think once we get through this period and some of the March data starts to come out, stocks will move higher.
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With equity markets closing at their lows of the day Tuesday, the likelihood is that trading may get off to weak start on Wednesday morning.
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In terms of the broader market, it looks like we may have entered a short period of consolidation or profit taking following the strong advance at the start of this year.
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If we can build on Tuesday's significant . . . turnaround, you could see buyers start coming back into the market and you could see a further push higher over the next several days.
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If we can build on Tuesday's significant intraday turnaround, you could see buyers start coming back into the market and you could see a further push higher over the next several days.
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The market is trying to find its footing here, amid what has been a poor start to the year.
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We're seeing a continuation of the trends that were generally in place through much of the first quarter. We continue to see a number of uncertainties below the surface, but investors have mostly focused on the positives.
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Looking into the second quarter, what could move us higher is a decline in oil prices, lower bond yields, solid economic data that is non inflationary and stronger growth on the earnings front.
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Looking ahead to next week, the more important question for investors will be: 'Will the market experience a holiday hangover as investors take profits?'.