Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldonis a former Australian rules footballer who played with Essendon in the Victorian Football League...
certainly continuing energy fed guy hard high markets money prices putting raise rates shy
With the fed continuing to raise rates and energy prices at very high levels, its hard to see the markets making much headway, ... certainly been guy shy about putting new money to work.
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Everyone expects the Fed to raise (a quarter point) and everyone wants to see if there is a change in the outlook that gives hints about future meetings.
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The mood of the market has clearly improved in recent weeks and this most likely reflects optimism that the Fed is close to the end of its recent rate tightening cycle.
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Historically, the three-month period before the Fed goes on hold in the rate hiking cycle, stocks have performed well and that carries on for the next 12 months,
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If you take all those comments together, it implies the Fed is less worried about deflation and more about inflation, all of which sets the stage for higher rates.
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The market is very oversold right now and I expect it to move higher over the next week or two. But beyond that, it's going to be very difficult for it to make much headway until we get a clearer sense of how much the Fed is going to move.
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We're seeing a continuation of the trends that were generally in place through much of the first quarter. We continue to see a number of uncertainties below the surface, but investors have mostly focused on the positives.
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Looking into the second quarter, what could move us higher is a decline in oil prices, lower bond yields, solid economic data that is non inflationary and stronger growth on the earnings front.
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Looking ahead to next week, the more important question for investors will be: 'Will the market experience a holiday hangover as investors take profits?'.
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Looking ahead to 2005, we are moderately optimistic and are looking for a stronger performance in the first half of the year followed by some weakness in the second half of the year.
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Markets are in a trading range right now, consolidating gains after the last few months. A lot of investors were looking to this week's data as a way to break out of the range, but what we've seen has left enough doubt in the minds of the bulls that we aren't likely to break out of this range in the next few sessions.
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I think the results from AMD and Apple after the close should help boost sentiment toward technology stocks, which have been on a bit of a roll for a few weeks,
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When the central bank came out and said they're going to drain liquidity over a period of months, that was a catalyst for investors who have avoided the stock market to put some money back in.
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Over the next few trading sessions, it will be important to watch whether the stock market sells off on rising volume. If that should happen, that could mean a spring correction is on the way.