Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldonis a former Australian rules footballer who played with Essendon in the Victorian Football League...
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We're seeing a continuation of the trends that were generally in place through much of the first quarter. We continue to see a number of uncertainties below the surface, but investors have mostly focused on the positives.
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Earnings for the fourth quarter have generally met or exceeded expectations. We've seen solid reports from a number of different industries, with strength not just in energy, as in previous quarters in 2005.
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Texas Instruments' numbers were broadly in line with estimates, but there may have been some disappointment that they didn't raise the high end of the range.
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I think the number is likely to be below the median estimate.
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Intel's numbers were clearly disappointing, as is reflected in the futures. The one thing is that you never know what will happen to the market given that the monthly jobs report comes out before the bell.
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Intel's news is going to hurt techs tomorrow. I think if the payroll numbers are disappointing, too, you're going to see a broader sell-off.
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Intel's news is going to hurt techs tomorrow, ... I think if the payroll numbers are disappointing, too, you're going to see a broader sell-off.
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Looking into the second quarter, what could move us higher is a decline in oil prices, lower bond yields, solid economic data that is non inflationary and stronger growth on the earnings front.
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Looking ahead to next week, the more important question for investors will be: 'Will the market experience a holiday hangover as investors take profits?'.
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Looking ahead to 2005, we are moderately optimistic and are looking for a stronger performance in the first half of the year followed by some weakness in the second half of the year.
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Markets are in a trading range right now, consolidating gains after the last few months. A lot of investors were looking to this week's data as a way to break out of the range, but what we've seen has left enough doubt in the minds of the bulls that we aren't likely to break out of this range in the next few sessions.
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I think the results from AMD and Apple after the close should help boost sentiment toward technology stocks, which have been on a bit of a roll for a few weeks,
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When the central bank came out and said they're going to drain liquidity over a period of months, that was a catalyst for investors who have avoided the stock market to put some money back in.
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Over the next few trading sessions, it will be important to watch whether the stock market sells off on rising volume. If that should happen, that could mean a spring correction is on the way.