Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldonis a former Australian rules footballer who played with Essendon in the Victorian Football League...
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We're seeing a continuation of the trends that were generally in place through much of the first quarter. We continue to see a number of uncertainties below the surface, but investors have mostly focused on the positives.
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We're likely to see a correction this year after the run we've had, as well. But the outlook for third and fourth quarter earnings has been good, and if the economic data continue to improve, we could see a slightly more narrow decline that what people have been expecting.
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You can't blame it all on energy because the trade deficit excluding petroleum rose faster than the overall deficit. The main culprit once again continues to be that imports are growing faster than exports.
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My sense is we continue to see this correction over the next few weeks, but I think once we get through this period and some of the March data starts to come out, stocks will move higher.
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Right now, I think the market needs a catalyst in order to get out of this difficult environment. Hopefully if oil prices continue to decline and move back into the mid $50s, that could turn sentiment more positive on Wall Street.
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If Greenspan is more hawkish, implying that rates will rise faster than thought, that may bother investors, ... If Greenspan continues to stress that rates can rise at a 'measured' pace, that may impress the market.
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The markets are rebounding a little after several sessions of weakness that stemmed from rising oil prices, rising fears of terrorism and a sharp decline in the dollar. Those issues have somewhat abated today, but they are issues the market will continue to face over the next few weeks. As a result, you could see more profit taking.
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Looking into the second quarter, what could move us higher is a decline in oil prices, lower bond yields, solid economic data that is non inflationary and stronger growth on the earnings front.
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Looking ahead to next week, the more important question for investors will be: 'Will the market experience a holiday hangover as investors take profits?'.
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Looking ahead to 2005, we are moderately optimistic and are looking for a stronger performance in the first half of the year followed by some weakness in the second half of the year.
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Markets are in a trading range right now, consolidating gains after the last few months. A lot of investors were looking to this week's data as a way to break out of the range, but what we've seen has left enough doubt in the minds of the bulls that we aren't likely to break out of this range in the next few sessions.
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I think the results from AMD and Apple after the close should help boost sentiment toward technology stocks, which have been on a bit of a roll for a few weeks,
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When the central bank came out and said they're going to drain liquidity over a period of months, that was a catalyst for investors who have avoided the stock market to put some money back in.
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Over the next few trading sessions, it will be important to watch whether the stock market sells off on rising volume. If that should happen, that could mean a spring correction is on the way.